Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Intraders Don't Know Any More Than We Do

No more of those stories about how well online markets predict elections. Intrade and others have gone up and down drastically throughout the past few months, and nothing illustrates how little we all know than the last week or two.

Between Christmas and New Year's, as Hillary seemed to be upticking, Obama's "stock" went down into the low 20s. As of yesterday, following his win in Iowa and presumed momentum in New Hampshire, it was above 70. Tonight, he is back down to the low 40s, while Clinton jumped from the low 20s to over 50.

Republican winner John McCain is not so lucky (well, not like he actually cares...). He is up slightly, 2.3 to 36.5.

No comments: