Consilience

The media isn't very good.

2010-06-21T12:08:00.000-05:00

Fargo: Wave of the Future

2010-04-05T21:07:00.004-05:00

Fargo makes a David Brooks column:

Over the next 40 years, Kotkin argues, urban downtowns will continue their modest (and perpetually overhyped) revival, but the real action will be out in the compact, self-sufficient suburban villages. Many of these places will be in the sunbelt — the drive to move there remains strong — but Kotkin also points to surging low-cost hubs on the Plains, like Fargo, Dubuque, Iowa City, Sioux Falls, and Boise.

I'll take it, but I think I speak for many others when I ask if Detroit can finally get a little love too. C'mon man, can they catch a break already?

Awesome, yet disturbing

2010-04-04T21:08:00.001-05:00

Cheese Frog!

What's with the crown and laugh at the end like Vincent Price at the conclusion of the Thriller video?

Venn Diagrams That Explain Our Fascination With Venn Diagrams

2010-04-04T20:11:00.002-05:00

That would be clickable....here.

A Special Race

2008-06-05T03:28:00.002-05:00

I've said to friends for months that an Obama-McCain race would be the most edifying one the country has seen in decades. It would pit two men with stark policy differences, a matching instinct for reform (though McCain's policies don't match his instincts nearly as well as they did eight years ago), and strong integrity.

We've seen multiple examples that the race will be different, including the series of Lincoln-Douglas that seems to be in the works, and both candidates decrying their parties' worst crimes of mindless partisanship.

Today, we learn from The Hill of another instance where Obama yet again puts his money where his mouth is on bringing people together.

So You Say Iggy's Coming to Town?

2008-05-30T15:17:00.001-05:00

Best tour rider ever.

#&$* Grapefruit

2008-02-25T12:33:00.001-06:00

See, this is what I've been saying, people! In my own head. Without profanity.

SNL Redux

2008-02-24T10:29:00.003-06:00

I haven't been a big fan of Saturday Night Live for a long time. The show isn't bad - well, some of it is - but the good parts aren't compelling enough to get me to the TV.

That said, as a political junkie if nothing else I had to watch last night's return from the writer's strike. First portrayal of Barack Obama, Mike Huckabee doing a walk-on, geek's dream Tina Fey hosting... I couldn't ask for much more.

The promise seemed to dissipate from the get-go. SNL chose to parody Thursday's Democratic debate on CNN, the dominant theme being the media being "in the tank" for Obama.

It says something about Obama that, after waiting for months, the thing SNL chose to make fun of him about is not actually about him (directly, anyway). They made fun of the media. Even Obama's mannerisms were not much parodied for comic effect, just exaggerated.

They hit the Hillary Clinton angle right on the head, going after her campaign's increasingly ludicrous spinning of her blowout losses in recent states. Is Obama too hard a target? Isn't there anything else to make fun of him about?

Then again, maybe his mannerisms were being made fun of, and the impression was just incompetent. There are no maybes about that last; the portrayal was godawful. It was barely recognizable as Obama, and as unfunny as I can recall one of SNL's famous presidential candidate impressions being.

The other problem was the choice to parody the debate. The idea that the media loves Obama has some truth to it, but as far as I could tell, none of it was on display at the CNN debate. Why not do a "Hardball" sketch with Darrell Hammond's Chris Matthews, who often is accused of disliking Clinton and loving Obama, leading the charge? It's the pundits who are generally accused of being in the tank, not news people like Campbell Brown and John King.

Huckabee also appeared on Weekend Update and reminded us once again why he's gotten so much mileage out of this campaign. He not only made fun of himself, but did it with excellent comic timing. Rock on, Mike. As long as I don't have to worry about you actually getting elected.

The episode completely redeemed itself, however, near the end of the show, with a pitch-perfect impression of "There Will Be Blood's" Daniel Plainview hosting "I Drink Your Milkshake" on the Food Network. The audience didn't seem to get it, but it's already entered the realm of classic SNL sketches for me, alongside "The McLaughlin Group," "Toonces the Driving Cat," and...well, too many others to name.

Comics generally seem to have a hard time knowing how to make fun of Obama. SNL proved last night to be no different. Overall though, a pretty good show.

Predictification

2008-02-21T13:25:00.005-06:00

Some predictions I've been mulling. And yes, I'll try to never include an easy one on these kinds of lists.

1. Barack Obama will beat John McCain in a landslide in November, sweeping purple states, and turning a number of formerly solid red states blue. He'll pick up a few southern states (like Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, Arkansas) at least, and possibly more, and they are likely to remain long-term in the Democratic column.

2. Obama will win both Ohio and Texas on March 4th, and Hillary Clinton will drop out of the race sometime in the first half of March.

3. Calls for Clinton to become Senate Majority Leader (the job she's much better suited for) will greatly increase, and in the end it will happen.

4. Obama will be compared to Ronald Reagan in another way, as people begin calling him the next "Teflon president."

5. McCain will eventually be forced to choose between Independents and what passes today for conservatives, as the former begin to realize how much he's had to alter his tone and positions to become the GOP nominee. Independents will break for Obama.

6. Many will call for McCain and especially Obama to form thin shadow presidencies in the Senate an push major legislation, but they will only partially materialize. Things are too difficult to get done in the Senate already, and that trend will only amplify as neither Obama nor McCain will want to be seen as letting the other win significant accomplishments.

7. Republicans will largely blame their defeat on McCain rather than the blindly obvious weaknesses in their own agenda, tone, and dearth of ideas. In that sense, McCain's nomination will delay, perhaps for many years, the reforms needed to revitalize the Party.

8. Obama's election will usher in a new liberal era, but one that is reborn much truer to its 1950s roots than a rehash of that of the 1970s and '80s.

9. My dog will remain quite dim, but everyone will continue to love him anyway.

2008-02-20T14:37:00.002-06:00

For some of the worst political analysis you will ever see, look no farther than John Derbyshire today.

Memo to the DNC: You are fielding two lackluster candidates here. What’s more, they will get weaker, as the Clinton-Obama scrapping knocks coats of paint from off both of them between now and August. No doubt John McCain will trip over his tongue a time or two, but he won’t be doing any scrapping. Doesn’t need to. Within his party, he’s a winner. Everybody likes a winner. Are you guys worried yet? You should be.

Uh...huh. Yes, two lackluster candidates, two that have been positively blowing the doors off voting records in every single state they've been in, and far outpacing the GOP at every turn. The one who is now the presumptive nominee who has been draw rapt, delirious crowds everywhere from New York to Boise, Idaho.

"Everybody likes a winner?" That's the best you've got for McCain? And that's going to lead to Al Gore becoming the nominee? I...you know, I really don't need to continue, because pieces like this that show almost no tether to reality filet themselves. There is displayed nothing but misapplied generalities and a shockingly poor understanding of voter behavior and, in particular, their sentiment this cycle.

Seriously, I double-checked to see if it was April 1st and I just forgot.

Hey Dude

2008-02-15T11:56:00.001-06:00

Via Andrew Sullivan, a young man who believes the '60s was the golden age of pop, Bono notwithstanding.

Barack Obama Thinks That Tie Looks Great on You

2008-02-14T19:45:00.001-06:00

Or something like that.

You...Are My Number One...ah-Girl

2008-02-04T17:44:00.000-06:00

So Jack Nicholson called into Rick Dees' radio show this morning to pitch his support of Hillary Clinton.

I recall reading a week or three ago the infamous wolf being interviewed for the release of "The Bucket List," saying he was hoping for one last great romance in his life. Well, they say nothing warms up a girl like an endorsement.

I'm just sayin'.

New Hampshire Played a Role

2008-01-27T02:19:00.000-06:00

I wrote after New Hampshire:

This is indeed a "change election," and until late Tuesday, that seemed about to include wholesale changes to Hillary Clinton's staff. Some moves have still been made, but I can't help wondering if her narrow New Hampshire victory might end up hurting her in a way.

That is, will it give her a false sense that her campaign got things figured out in the days before Tuesday, and forestall some changes that really are necessary?

I think in part it did. Michelle Cottle digs in here. Since TNR requires a login, I've included the full article below.

It's amazing how quickly Clinton's campaign put on the inevitability mask after two narrow victories. Instead of a less-than-expected South Carolina victory tonight for Barack Obama, though, they face a massive backlash of their own doing. Nobody saw a 29-point victory coming.

Maybe Mark Penn or another key player will be quietly kicked downstairs, and perhaps that will help. But what do you do if your biggest problem turns out to be (and it may) your husband and your own most basic political instincts to do anything it takes to win?

Full article:

Putsch in Hillaryland by Michelle Cottle
The Clinton campaign's silent shake-up.
Post Date Friday, January 25, 2008

The morning after is never pretty. In the wake of defeat in the Iowa caucus, it was a sad and sorry Team Hillary that assembled for a conference call with the candidate. Campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, in transit back to Washington, was absent. Top strategist Mark Penn was dazed and subdued, waiting for the candidate to come on the line. When she did, Hillary gave a brief greeting making clear that there would be no navel-gazing and that she was ready to look ahead, according to a participant in the call who was already on the ground in New Hampshire (desperately seeking guidance). Adopting the same ready-for-business tone, message guru Mandy Grunwald tried to spur conversation by asking other top advisers if they wanted to share any thoughts. Nothing. After a pregnant pause, Hillary jumped back in to talk for a few minutes about what she saw as the next step. Again, she was met by silence that stretched out awkwardly until a displeased Hillary snipped, "This has been very helpful talking to myself," and hung up on the group.

Post-Iowa, even the most blindly devoted members of Team Hillary could see that a shake-up of the campaign was in order. The peculiarities of Iowa's caucus system aside, broad structural and tonal problems needed to be addressed. So, as a devastated top leadership struggled to make sense of what had happened, the candidate went to work: Plans were made to bring in new blood; rumors circulated about who among the senior staff would be booted after New Hampshire. But then--surprise!--Granite State voters smiled on the Clinton clan once more, delivering Hillary a political resurrection even more stunning than Bill's 1992 comeback. The troops were elated. The generals were relieved. The candidate was glowing and crowing about her found voice. It was a grand and glorious triumph. Except...

The campaign still needed shaking. The percolating trouble brought to the surface in Iowa could not be ignored. But how to accomplish this without damaging the campaign's miraculous new momentum? Especially when much of the discord, say multiple insiders, flowed from decision-makers at the very top of the pyramid.

For all Team Hillary's gifts, it is not known as a happy group. "I've never seen a campaign where everyone feels so bad about themselves," says one campaign staffer, echoing others. This may be somewhat unavoidable: Too much is on the line. Everyone is exhausted. The public scrutiny (damn those scrounging reporters!) is relentless. But compounding these generic stressors, say insiders, has been the fear-inducing, high-handed leadership of the coterie of überadvisers known as "the Five."

High atop Hillary's disciplined, leakproof operation, Solis Doyle, along with Penn, Grunwald, policy chief Neera Tanden, and communications director Howard Wolfson, have kept an iron grip on everything from ideas to access. Characterized by their colleagues--and even themselves--as a collection of brilliant but not especially likable political talents, the Five are seen by many insiders as contributing to the candidate's image problem. Even those who profess fondness for individual members admit that none makes a compelling Face of the Campaign. So, when Team Hillary hit its Iowa speed bump, the thoughts of many immediately turned toward shattering the hold of the Five.

In any given situation, the first member of this inner circle to be targeted for abuse is Penn. The reasons are legion: his high profile; his right-of-center politics; his myopic focus on issues; his dismissal of the need for Hillary to get personal and address her likability problem; his unusual dual role as top strategist and pollster; and, of course, his famously rough manner. It's little wonder that all those insiders who didn't care for Penn when the team was riding high were salivating at the idea of prying the campaign from his cold dead hands as things turned south in Iowa. But, despite political watchers crediting Hillary's comeback to her at last getting personal (a move Penn had fought against in favor of more Iron Lady messaging), New Hampshire bought Penn a reprieve.

Instead, the adviser most damaged by Iowa may be the one closest to the candidate: Hillary's longtime scheduler and alter ego, Solis Doyle. Among the most devout members of Hillaryland, Solis Doyle is cheered by supporters as an "unconventional" choice for campaign manager. Detractors are less kind, noting that even some of Hillary's most trusted advisers have long questioned Solis Doyle's readiness for the job. Clinton money man Terry McAuliffe is said to have expressed reservations early on, including in a conversation with the Clintons during the couple's January 2006 trip to the Dominican Republic, according to someone there with the group. (McAuliffe denies this.) Similarly, several weeks before the campaign's official launch, a handful of the most senior Hillarylanders met with the senator to express eleventh-hour doubts about Solis Doyle, says someone Hillary spoke with after the meeting.

No one denies that Solis Doyle's authority stems less from her expertise or political savvy (though defenders insist she has an abundance of both) than from her bond with Hillary. The result, say critics, is a toxic blend of insecurity (about her abilities) and arrogance (about her proximity to the boss). As they tell it, an overwhelmed Solis Doyle has become increasingly temperamental--playing favorites and abusing her relationship with Hillary to control information flow and enhance her own power. "It's become 'The Patti Show,'" snipes a former member of the Clinton White House who remains close to both Clintons. Solis Doyle is said to allow unaddressed issues to pile up, failing to do things like return calls to surrogates in need of direction or contributors in need of stroking. "People are constantly complaining to the senator and other members of the campaign family that their calls aren't being returned," notes one observer who often hears from such people. At the same time, over the course of her management career, Solis Doyle has developed a reputation for mucking around in the weeds, insisting upon signing off on even low-level decisions, such as where to hold a minor event and whether bagels or donuts should be served. (That's not a hypothetical.) She is brutal to staffers who try to circumvent her with a request, and she is not shy about reminding others of her position: When dispatched to Iowa headquarters in the final month, Solis Doyle demanded that in preparation for her arrival walls be erected around the section of the giant bullpen where she would be working.

As the leadership regrouped in the wake of Iowa, Hillary loyalists both inside and outside the campaign began contacting the candidate, offering opinions on What Next. "I've never seen such a sense of empowerment and excitement," recalls the Clinton White House veteran. "The Five disappeared, and it was like the fence that had been stopping ideas from flowing disappeared." Once that "overarching power structure was gone," the person adds, the rest of the team "went into overdrive." So strong was the desire for change that the Granite State miracle, while obviously a godsend, left some staffers deflated as it became clear that the planned overhaul had been derailed.

This is not to suggest that nothing has changed. Despite no heads having rolled, several advisers have been "layered on." Some are veteran Bill Clinton hands, such as former political director Doug Sosnik and ad man Roy Spence. Others are longtime Hillarylanders who had been unofficially pinch-hitting for the campaign all along, including Melanne Verveer (now helping with faith outreach), Lissa Muscatine (speechwriting), Lisa Caputo (surrogate management), Jen Klein (a policy expert lending an occasional hand with speechwriting), and the formidable Evelyn Lieberman, who may be best remembered as the White House deputy chief of staff who booted a certain intern from the West Wing to the Pentagon. Lieberman is often praised as a "grown-up" with the brains and backbone to go toe to toe with any of the Five.

Among insiders keeping score, the new additions mean greater accountability for the Five. Spence is expected to affect the fiefdoms of Penn and Grunwald. The addition of communications mavens like Caputo and Kiki McLean (a veteran of the 1992 campaign who was drafted pre-Iowa to help with surrogates) is a recognition that Wolfson's shop needed reinforcements. Muscatine and Klein, meanwhile, can reinforce Neera Tanden's department, which handles speechwriting.

Then there's Maggie Williams, who refers to herself simply as a "utility player." But no one on Team Hillary questions that she is far more than that. Having served as chief of staff to both Hillary (in the White House) and Bill (at his foundation), Williams has the trust of both the former president and the aspiring one. Hillarylanders point to her as one of the candidate's closest confidantes, the person who "sees into Hillary's soul," "knows what makes her tick," and is arguably more of her "peer" than many other members of the inner circle.

When I asked Williams about her new role, she downplayed it, explaining that she will be doing a little of everything but nothing of note. And, above all, no matter what I may have heard, in no way has she been brought in to manage the team. Her friend Solis Doyle, she said, continues to make all the decisions befitting a campaign manager. As for her broader impact on the office, Williams demurs, "There are so many people over here that I don't think people have even noticed me."

Williams's history with the Clintons is a fraught one. Of the original Hillaryland crew, arguably no one bore the brunt of the scandals and political storms as fiercely. Twice, Williams became the object of intense public and legal scrutiny: first, when the Whitewater probe raised allegations that she had helped obstruct the investigation into Vince Foster's suicide by removing files from his office on the night he died; and, again, when the disputed details of her acceptance of a $50,000 political donation from Johnny Chung earned her an invitation to testify before Congress during the Democrats' 1996 fund-raising scandal. For many political watchers, Williams stood as the poster child for the Clintons' careless disregard of those close to them. At the end of Bill Clinton's first term, a scarred and exhausted Williams, having racked up $350,000 in legal bills, resigned her White House post and fled to Paris for a couple of years with her new husband.

Williams admirers see it as a testament to her devotion to Hillary that she has returned to the fray. It is also a testament to how desperately Team Hillary needed a jolt. And, by all accounts, Williams wasted no time in providing one--her self-deprecating protestations notwithstanding. The Wednesday after New Hampshire, Williams moved into the campaign's Ballston, Virginia, headquarters. Having already reached out to many of the aforementioned Hillarylanders, she promptly began meeting with pre-existing members of every department to assess their problems, ideas, and needs. "It doesn't get any better than to have somebody of her stature come in and say, 'What do you need, and what can I do to help you get things done?'" says one Hillarylander now consulting with Williams. Word from inside HQ is that morale has already improved since Williams's arrival.

Whatever specific tasks they tackle, Team Hillary's latest additions are more broadly intended to open the lines of communication and loosen the grip of the Five. The veteran Hillarylanders in particular--Williams, Verveer, Muscatine, Lieberman--all have direct lines of communication with Hillary, making it that much harder for information to get roadblocked. Unsurprisingly, not everyone is thrilled with the new order. Williams's appearance on the scene, after all, was widely viewed as a vote of no-confidence in Solis Doyle. And, although Williams stresses that she came aboard at Solis Doyle's behest, other insiders report that the wounded campaign manager took the arrival of her old boss rather badly. It provoked considerable comment when, for Williams's first day at HQ, Solis Doyle steered clear of the office, missing key strategy meetings that included the former president himself.

Even so, change proponents remain nervous that, with the sting of Iowa fading, the situation will regress as the Five reassert their primacy. "New Hampshire dulled the sword," sighs one staffer. And, now, with the Nevada wind in its sails, it seems all the more unlikely that an organization that fears revealing internal disunity like most folks fear bird flu will risk dramatic restructuring. But this is the corner into which the campaign has painted itself. Self-defined as a venture marked by stability and discipline, it can't very well start hurling bodies overboard without provoking a media feeding frenzy. Barring another Iowa-sized iceberg, staffers weary of the current direction may need to take solace in whatever minor course corrections can be made. Change may make for a snappy campaign slogan. But, as an organizational strategy, it poses something of an existential dilemma for Team Hillary.

Michelle Cottle is a senior editor at The New Republic.

Throwing Up Hands on Electability

2008-01-21T13:20:00.000-06:00

I've seen quite a few posts suggesting it's highly problematic to determine whether Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would be more electable in a general election. They're maddening, because though we can never be sure, if you had a gun to your head, Obama would clearly be the guy to bet on.

Jonathan Chait writes about it more convincingly than I could:

Hillary Clinton is a highly unpopular figure. In the last Gallup survey, 50% of respondents have a favorable view of her, and 46% negative. Sometimes her averages goes higher, but sometimes it veers into negative territory. Obama has very high ratings. In the most recent poll, 59% view him favorably, 32% negatively. The difference between plus 4 and plus 27 is enormous--a Detroit Lions v. New England Patriots-size gap.

On top of that, independents who vote in the primaries and caucuses have shown a very strong preference for Obama over Clinton. That is the closest available approximation of a swing voter.

As Chait adds, the idea that the "Republican attack machine" would make any Democrat just as disliked as Clinton is nonsense. It's possible for Obama to become as unpopular, but he'd have to run a dreadful campaign for that to happen. He is a fundamentally different candidate, one who is tailor-made in both word and deed to bring in those swing voters.

One thing to add to Chait's analysis is that the idea that Clinton is already as unpopular as she's going to be misses a major point. That is, the raw nerve the couple rubbed daily while in office has scabbed over. Some of us looked even started looking back a bit fondly, especially in comparison to the current disastrous presidency, and forgot the proximal things that made us so livid.

No more. As the Clintons see a legitimate opponent daring to usurp their rightful throne, the demagoguery, uncomfortably hardball tactics, and outright distortions have begun again. Someone like me now remembers viscerally why I couldn't stand them.

The post finishes with a very insightful point:

That so many Democrats think this question is complicated suggests to me that maybe people aren't good as assessing the popularity of their co-partisans. To Democrats, it's perfectly obvious that the strongest Republican nominee is John McCain. He polls very highly, everybody knows Democrats and Independents who like him, and so on. But Republicans are constantly debating this. You see Republicans spinning horror scenarios of a McCain nomination leading to a splintering base or depressed turnout. To Democrats it's bewildering that they even debate this. Lots of Republicans feel the same way about the Clinton/Obama electability debate.

Finessing Clinton Attacks

2008-01-21T13:03:00.000-06:00

Ed Morrissey may have something here about Barack Obama's decision to go after Bill Clinton's largely misleading statements about Obama's record:

Obama made a big step in making this an issue. He has explicitly tied Bill to Hillary at a time when other Democrats have begun to beg Bill to get more in the background. Newsweek has an article in this week's edition that name Ted Kennedy and Rahm Emanuel as party leaders who have told Bill directly to pipe down. Obama has now made it harder for Bill to withdraw from the fight, and Obama clearly now believes that Bill could be an effective way to attack Hillary.

Clinton may face disadvantages as a woman running for high office, but she garners advantages for the same reason. One is that when competitors attack her, she looks more like a victim that a male candidate would. Contrast how much Mitt Romney benefited (not much) from the gang beating he took at the first New Hampshire debate with how much mileage Clinton gained from the relatively light one she received up there for at least one data point.

That said, the more Bill Clinton speaks, the more he makes this nomination fight a referendum on him instead of his wife. Perhaps more important, Obama can go after him with less risk, as he won't be attacking Hillary directly.

It will also be very hard for Bill to not respond. It's not in his makeup, as the vast weight of evidence of his public life would indicate.

This strategy carries significant risk, but it's hard to see where Obama has another choice if he wants to win. His omnipresent challenge is to do it without appearing negative, something he's mostly finessed beautifully so far in this race.

Magic, Listen to Yourself

2008-01-18T16:57:00.000-06:00

Magic Johnson has recorded a radio ad for Hillary Clinton that makes a puzzling analogy (from Marc Ambinder):

My rookie year, we won our first game on a last second shot. I was so hyped. But the captain of my team said, “take it easy rookie, it’s a long season, it’s a long road to the championship.” He was right. Winning comes from years of hard work and preparation. Whether it’s winning championships or a President who can lead us back to greatness, I’ll always want the most prepared and experienced person leading my team.

That's interesting, since Johnson came in second for Rookie of the Year to Larry Bird that season, and went on to win the NBA Finals MVP and Championship. His run included scoring 42 points and playing all five positions on the court in one of the greatest deciding playoff performances in league history.

If any useful analogy is indeed possible with Magic's basketball career, this one seems more likely: A man with immense charisma and off-the-charts talent fundamentally changes the game in his first season, and his influence is still profoundly felt 28 years later.

I ain't sayin', I'm just sayin'.

Update: The Obama campaign was thinking the same thing.

Assessing Obama's Foreign Policy

2008-01-17T22:22:00.000-06:00

Stephen Zunes puts together a helpful assessment of many of Barack Obama's foreign policy views in one place. His conclusion is guardedly optimistic, which seems the most reasonable to me.

Despite his rather limited experience in national office, Obama appears to be one of the smartest, most visionary and most knowledgeable members of the U.S. Senate on foreign policy. As a result, he would be more likely to take creative and independent initiatives and less reliant on the traditional foreign policy establishment than any modern president of ether party.

As many of the examples above illustrate, however, that doesn’t mean he’ll always be right. A combination of his limited vision and the constraints imposed upon any president by the imperatives of powerful economic and strategic interests make it doubtful that Obama will be able to move the country significantly forward in ways that will address the most important challenges facing the country and the world today on his own. However, there are indications that he could be more open to a more progressive foreign policy if the growing social movements in this country for peace and justice are able to mobilize effectively and provide the necessary counter-pressures. Obama’s strong showing thus far in the race for the Democratic nomination is a direct result of such movements. If he wins the presidency, he would be obliged to listen to those who would play such an important role in bringing him to the White House.

In summary, we must neither be naïve about Barack Obama’s limitations nor cynical about his potential.

North Dakota = Ecuador

2008-01-17T12:07:00.000-06:00

A slightly useful, mostly just fun, map that renames U.S. states based on the countries their GDPs most closely resemble.

I keep looking at Wyoming because it's fun to say "Uzbeks."

H/t to Reason magazine.

Your Romney Update

2008-01-16T01:30:00.001-06:00

Saying John McCain was "the clear favorite" in South Carolina, Mitt Romney today added that "it would be an enormous surprise if [McCain is] not able to win here."

I fully understand setting expectations, but please keep it within bounded reality. By what standard would it be an enormous surprise if McCain doesn't win? Even before Romney pulled out a nice Michigan win, McCain led Mike Huckabee by single digits with yesterday's primary sure to have an impact on the eventual results.

It will also be interesting to see what version of Romney we see in South Carolina. So far, he's seemingly chosen his personas like he was participating in local community theater productions in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan. Maybe he'll say he has textile mills in his blood.

Robert Farley wonders why Romney hasn't been anointed:

[W]hy isn't Mitt Romney being treated as the overwhelming frontrunner in the Republican race? He's won two of the four contests so far, and placed second twice. Moreover, Michigan differs from the other three contests in that it's inhabited by actual people, twice as many as the other three states combined. He's also the leader in total money and trails only minor also-ran candidate Rudy Giuliani in cash on hand. He hasn't won any Southern states, but then neither has anyone else, and I doubt that the media would have been reticent about declaring John McCain the frontrunner if he'd taken Michigan.

He's not overwhelming, though, because he only won one out of three states for which he was the heavy favorite. Two had a home field advantage, and the "total money" advantage Farley mentions couldn't put lipstick on the pig, as they say. Romney's strategy was based on big early wins to propel his name recognition higher in later primary states. That hasn't happened, and it's hard to see how he generates a groundswell from the tepid response he's so far received.

Romney may well end up being the candidate conservatives rally around, which is amazing considering his past positions were much more liberal than supposed-apostate McCain's ever were. Choosing him may be the best thing for the GOP, because he'll be defeated so badly it likely would force Republicans to aggressively address the sorry state of the Party in a way a relatively close loss, or even narrow win, by McCain would not.

Umm...What?

2008-01-15T23:13:00.000-06:00

In Michigan, essentially meaningless for Democrats, Hillary Clinton came away today with 55 percent of the vote, while Uncommitted garnered 40 percent. What does it mean? Heck if I know.

Norah O'Donnell just broke down the distribution of that 40 percent, and showed who those candidates would have voted for had other Democrats been on the ballot. While 73 percent said Barack Obama, three percent said they would've voted for Clinton. Who was on the ballot.

It's like people who call 976 numbers to vote undecided.

Meaningless Grading

2008-01-15T21:55:00.000-06:00

It's because I like lists and rankings, ok? If that's wrong, I don't want to be right.

I'll probably rethink everything by tomorrow, but for now:

Obama: A-: After a slow start, this may have been his best debate. He got in his talking points naturally, threw in some well-targeted policy proposals, got in a sharp critique of Clinton on Iraq and the politics of fear without sounding harsh, and was relatively humorous and easy.

Clinton: B+: She was substantive as always, and showed the right level of anger at problems facing average people. Some of the subject matter was not helpful to her, as it focused on mistakes her campaign had made, but overall she showed command.

Edwards: B-: Had a tough challenge standing out, and wasn't able to do it, as he was on the defensive at times. He showed his usual passion for working people and is appealing, but is it enough?

Obama Comes On

2008-01-15T21:36:00.001-06:00

I may have to rethink my earlier posting. Obama started weak tonight, but has reeled off a number of impressive answers in the last hour. Asked if Hispanics are less willing to support a black candidate, he scored a standing triple by retorting, "Not in Illinois. They all voted for me." He's been substantive, smooth, and on message most of the night.

Clinton and Edwards have also done well, though Edwards has been on the defensive a couple times, once again having to explain his reversals on votes while in the Senate. To give himself a glimmer of hope, he needed to have a great debate, and he hasn't.

Now, a Skirmish!

2008-01-15T21:28:00.000-06:00

It's not on major points, but we do have some clashing on nuclear power and the energy bill. It's substantive debate.

One thing I'm now really getting sick of, by the way, is Clinton's saying that things don't happen because we hope for them. How is it not a gross mischaracterization of Obama's message to imply that he simply hopes his policy proposals will happen? Such false choices drive me crazy, mainly I think because so often many people actually buy them.

Holding Hands and Singing

2008-01-15T21:08:00.000-06:00

Wow, the candidates are really playing nice tonight. They're respectful, kidding with each other... The new wrinkle to have candidates ask each other questions was a good idea, and each had the effect of displaying substantial unity among the three on the stage.

Really, though, shouldn't it be this way? On policy, opposition, and most other things, they're not far apart. It's mostly personality that keeps them apart, but it needn't.

MSNBC, by the way, shortchanged us by ruling what was clearly a clarification on Obama's part as "his question." I'm guessing his prepared question, presumably to Clinton, would have been much more edifying. Maybe he'll try to sneak it in later.

The Economy Looms Large

2008-01-15T20:37:00.000-06:00

The recent spate of portents of economic downturn are right in Clinton's wheelhouse as someone who is always prepared with a stack of "what I'm gonna do for you" proposals to nearly every demographic group.

A worsening economy should help both Clinton and Edwards partly because it makes people worry about more bread-and-butter issues that go right to their policy-centric electoral approaches. But I think it also favors them in terms of tone. When you're down, whether it's your own fault or you're a victim of circumstance, there is a human tendency to want to hear someone railing against the system.

Obama's rhetoric may do that, but Clinton and Edwards offer an indignation that is more soothing in the short term.

Update: Obama has reeled off a couple good answers, including one on how he would raise taxes without hitting the middle class and retirees. He included some good examples that people could relate to (like Warren Buffett paying a lower tax rate than his secretary) mixed with some specific policy relief proposals.

Obama = Bush?

2008-01-15T20:30:00.000-06:00

Clinton has once again compared Obama to George W. Bush. This time it's on Obama's comments that he's not a bureaucracy guy, but a CEO type. Clinton again essentially said to voters, "we saw how well *that* worked" when Bush came into office with his M.B.A. education, but not knowing how to manage.

Such comparisons should be highly questionable on their face, since a successful presidency is the result of interactions of literally millions of variables. In this case, Obama's response was a very good one, saying that Bush was really on top of being on time, but that he didn't know how to listen to diverse viewpoints. It was a deft pivot back to a central theme of his campaign.

An aside: In recent debates, wide shots that included Hillary while others were talking included a lot of clenched jaws and icy stares. Tonight there is a great deal of nodding. Detente, if only temporarily.

5819th Post on Obama's Lackluster Debate Presence

2008-01-15T20:15:00.000-06:00

Having watched Obama for many months now, it's been fascinating to watch how much he's grown as a candidate in most ways. Performing in debates has not yet been one of them.

Pundits have often wondered if there's any "beef" behind his grand rhetoric, but I think that's way off. He doesn't reel off policy detail like Clinton, but his policy ideas are generally quite detailed and nuanced. He just doesn't bring them to the fore.

His prepared speeches are masterful in their ability to make difficult concepts simple and memorable, and weave them together into a coherent whole. But in a debate, he is challenged to answer in the same way. Even on questions he should be prepared for - such as on his saying to Clinton that she's "likeable enough" - he seems to be fumbling just a bit.

In other news, Uncommitted is beating Duncan Hunter in Michigan two percent to zero. Given Hunter's platform of economic nationalism, national security, and stopping illegal immigration, if Hunter can't eke out a few points here, where can he?

Live Blogging the MSNBC Debate

2008-01-15T20:08:00.000-06:00

We'll try a first here tonight, some live blogging of the Democratic debate in Nevada.

Kucinich was out, then in, then out again. Race is the first issue, and all three candidates are giving gracious answers to defuse a week of relative nastiness. Obama has so far been most plain, saying sometimes their supporters "get overzealous" and "say things that I wouldn't." It's good, because there is no victory in race becoming a long-term issue for him.

For the record, here's a digest version of what I think about the whole discussion from the past week:

Most of the comments coming out of the Clinton campaign were not racist in any way, although some were tone deaf. Those by BET founder Robert Johnson were despicable, and Clinton should have clearly disavowed them.
It's quite a stretch to contend Obama pushed this issue. One can argue he should have moved more quickly to defuse it, but that seems to me far from clear.

Kneel Before Zod

2008-01-15T19:27:00.000-06:00

That's right, I said it, as I am now ruler of Australia.

Kneel.

Ron Paul? What?

2008-01-11T18:28:00.000-06:00

Ok, I want to know what the deal is with these online tests to see which candidate fits your issues the best. Former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, a Hillary Clinton endorser, apparently took one:

After several friends had e-mailed him a link to an Internet quiz
that uses a checklist of issues to determine which candidate a participant matches up best with, Mr. Kerrey said, he “broke down and tried it.”

So, did his answers add up as an Obama person’s?

“No, actually, I was ‘Dennis Kucinich,’ ” he said.

This is anecdotal evidence, but almost every person I know who's taken one of these gets told that Kucinich or Ron Paul is their best match. Now, granted, the tests can only take issues into account, not the vast number of intangibles that end up deciding most elections, but do these two guys have a point that voters agree with them more than we think?

Eh.

About McCain's Path

2008-01-11T13:34:00.000-06:00

I don't think there's any way with anything like even 50 percent certainty to guess the GOP nominee at this point. However, there is one other factor I haven't seen discussed that may favor John McCain: endorsements from his opponents.

It seems to me that if Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson, or Rudy Giuliani were to drop out of the race, all of them would endorse McCain. Mitt Romney...well, would he endorse any of the four? None of them can seem to stand him, and perhaps the feeling is mutual.

It's unclear who would drop out first even if we knew the results of the several upcoming states. It seems Thompson will drop after South Carolina if he doesn't do very well. Giuliani admitted the huge importance of Florida to his campaign, and with him running low on money, it's hard to see how he'd stick around if he doesn't win or come in a close second there. Romney may bow out after another disappointing Michigan showing, but lots of people are speculating he'd stick around to try to rise above a poor field. Huckabee may have the longest shelf life, but if he suddenly drops and does poorly in both Michigan and South Carolina, he may be forced out too.

So in general, it seems like the more people drop out, the more McCain benefits. It's hard to believe for a 2000 McCainiac like me.

Hamilton Doesn't Look a Day Over 245.

2008-01-11T11:55:00.000-06:00

I concur with Steve Clemons. Alexander Hamilton is up there in my personal American political pantheon with Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and Harry Truman. I'd argue no one was more responsible for the architecture of what America was to become, and probably no one is less known for it.

I also agree that you should check out Ron Chernow's excellent biography.

Saul Alinsky? Really?

2008-01-10T22:19:00.000-06:00

This e-mail from one of Sullivan's readers is overstated (even beyond the author's explicit admission), but offers a fascinating perspective.

I had never heard of Saul Alinksy before reading the e-mail, but this excerpt from Alinksy sounds familiar to anyone following Barack Obama, no?

"There's another reason for working inside the system. Dostoevsky said that taking a new step is what people fear most. Any revolutionary change must be preceded by a passive, affirmative, non-challenging attitude toward change among the mass of our people. They must feel so frustrated, so defeated, so lost, so futureless in the prevailing system that they are willing to let go of the past and chance the future. This acceptance is the reformation essential to any revolution.

That seems exactly what Obama is preaching, a revolution without the John Edwards-style fighting rhetoric we typically associate with one. Of course, that may be required for a revolution that paradoxically aims at taming rhetoric and establishing political harmony.

The thing is, Alinsky was apparently the thesis subject for Hillary Rodham, while Obama incorporated many of the man's teachings in his years as a community organizer. If the subject wasn't so obscure, it might even become part of the Ali-Frazier storyline that seems to be forming between the two candidates.

Lucy Argues for Welfare Reform

2008-01-10T15:33:00.000-06:00

It's not far off, is it?

Iron My Shirt!

2008-01-10T14:59:00.000-06:00

I never thought Hillary Clinton's tearing up Saturday was anything but authentic. She's tightly controlled, but her husband is the one who can easily change his emotional state to match the crowd, not her.

This is the one that nagged at me, though:

One source inside the Clinton camp said the "iron my shirts" comment appeared to anger and energize women in particular, boosting Hillary Clinton's share of the women's vote and pushing her to a narrow upset victory over Barack Obama.

The whole moment (where a man got up at a pre-primary event and yelled for Hillary to iron his shirt) struck me as so odd and stereotypical that I admit the thought crossed my mind that it was planned. It probably wasn't, but given experience with the Clintons' tactics, it's not tough to believe.

Forestalling Needed Change

2008-01-10T13:58:00.001-06:00

This is indeed a "change election," and until late Tuesday, that seemed about to include wholesale changes to Hillary Clinton's staff. Some moves have still been made, but I can't help wondering if her narrow New Hampshire victory might end up hurting her in a way.

That is, will it give her a false sense that her campaign got things figured out in the days before Tuesday, and forestall some changes that really are necessary?

It's not uncommon. In my own former business life, we had several cases of someone - an incompetent or bad influence - who we knew needed to be let go. We'd be ready to do it, and then we'd have a good month, or the employee would pull a rabbit out of his hat, and it would be decided to "give it a little more time." Not once did that course accomplish anything but delay the inevitable, to everyone's detriment.

Much will depend on which lessons Clinton learns from New Hampshire. If she believes throwing everything negative against the wall worked, they'll continue to hammer Obama, and it likely won't work. If she gives a staff member who is a liability another lease on life, that probably won't help her either.

Objectivity in the Blogosphere?

2008-01-10T13:52:00.001-06:00

Well, maybe that's not quite the right word, but it's exchanges like this, where criticism is not a mindless screed, and the response by Andrew Sullivan is one of reflection and nuance, that are far too rare in the blogging world.

Do Words Mean Anything Anymore?

2008-01-10T13:43:00.000-06:00

CNN's weatherman Chad Myers earlier this afternoon led off coverage of tornado coverage in Mississippi by saying the number of severe weather warnings had gotten "truly astronomical."

What qualifies as "astronomical," a word meant to describe numbers found in astronomy that the human mind can't really comprehend, these days? Twelve, apparently.

Look, I try to keep my instincts for proper language usage under some degree of control, if only because I don't mind getting an invitation to a dinner party once in a while. But do any superlative adjectives mean anything but "a lot" or "very good" anymore?

Giuliani's Goin' to the Loony Bin, Eh?

2008-01-10T13:32:00.000-06:00

Writes Josh Patashnik:

Remember when Rudy Giuliani made the off-the-reservation loony claim that if we were to cut taxes, we would have to fix the resulting hole in the budget by balancing it out with more tax cuts? (Crazy as it sounds, of course, it's just a logical inference from the supply-side argument that lower taxes always mean more revenue.) Everyone assumed Giuliani had misspoken. When he insisted he meant what he said, everyone assumed it was just gratuitous, empty pandering to the economic right. As Avi Zenilman found out, even conservative economists are unwilling to associate themselves with this sort of lunacy.

But now it turns out Giuliani has actually proposed a tax plan that, indeed, seems to balance out tax cuts with more tax cuts.

On the tax issue in question, it's even easier to pick apart than it appears. That's because Giuliani blatantly contradicts himself in the same sentence. By saying that we'd even need something to counterbalance a tax cut, he's admitting it would lose revenue, not gain it. The statement was nonsensical, and that he sticks by it should worry anyone, regardless of one's tax views.

Giuliani was a very intriguing candidate for me as someone who likes moderate-to-liberal social policy, conservative economics, and a generally hard-headed foreign policy. Perhaps no presidential candidate has been a bigger disappointment, as he has turned downright crazy-dogmatic on economics and America's attitude toward the rest of the world.

Noooo! John Kerry!

2008-01-10T11:26:00.000-06:00

This seems pretty typical of too much of the "analysis" (Chris Cillizza and a few others are much better) I've seen this morning on John Kerry's endorsement of Barack Obama.

If I were the Obama folks I'd be a bit nervous to see John Kerry surfing into the picture with an endorsement, given how it worked out the last time a former Democratic nominee stepped in to back someone in the primary.

That's it? Because four years ago the previous Dem nominee endorsed Howard Dean Obama should be nervous this time?

Look, there are more variables than anyone can count in politics, and there is no evidence I can discern that there's any substantive connection between the two endorsements mentioned. Obama and Dean are different candidates; Democrats as a whole never saw Dean as electable, while in New Hampshire voters saw Obama as more electable than Clinton. The 2004 and 2008 electoral landscape is different, Kerry and Gore are different...heck, even Gore 2004 and Gore 2008 are different. Let's get a little more rigorous here.

A New Obama Campaign Mistake

2008-01-09T17:16:00.000-06:00

Barack Obama has served his campaign very well by never once, to my recollection, playing the dreaded race card. I would be shocked if he started now, but I've now seen two people connected to his campaign say that it might have been a factor.

One was a Georgetown professor and Obama supporter on this evening's Hardball, and here's another from Obama's campaign co-chair Jesse Jackson, Jr.

Even though they're not saying it was the reason, it is still a big mistake. The media and pollsters will analyze race as a factor in how wrong the polls are of their own accord. The last thing Obama should want is for his campaign to be associated with pushing the theme.

Disputing the Bradley Effect

2008-01-09T11:09:00.001-06:00

One of the more popular theories on Hillary's win is something called the "Bradley effect," which is shorthand for disguised racism. It's named for Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who in 1982 was well ahead in the polls, but ended up surprisingly losing the gubernatorial election.

Were New Hampshire residents telling pollsters what they wanted to hear, trying not to appear racist, and then switching to Clinton in the polling booth? It seems unlikely.

As pollster.com shows, Obama's 36 percent was almost exactly what aggregate polls predicted him to get. People didn't appear to leave him. As I pointed out last night, it was Clinton's numbers that were outside the margin of error; she gained an amazing nine points.

There is almost certainly no one answer for why this happened, but right now I'm not buying the racism argument, especially when the 37-24 gap Clinton worked up among women is staring us baldly in the face.

One other thought: Dick Morris famously has insisted that in most elections, undecided voters will overwhelmingly break for the challenger at the end. If in fact many primary voters resisted Obama's coronation, then perhaps his being the clear front-runner, if only for a few days, pushed that effect Clinton's way.

Giving Parrots a Bad Name

2008-01-09T10:44:00.000-06:00

While interviewing Mike Huckabee campaign manager Chip Saltzman last night, Sean Hannity not only improbably defended Mitt Romney's campaign record to date, he used Romney's own talking points, saying he thought "two silver [medal]s and a gold" sounded like pretty good results to him.

Saltzman was justifiably at a loss for words. Romney outspent his rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire by an order of magnitude and spent huge amounts of time in both states. He was beaten by two establishment-bucking candidates to boot. And he explicitly based his entire campaign strategy on winning both states to catapult his always-low poll numbers enough to win the nomination.

There is no reasonable way to think Romney has had a good performance so far. In a wide open GOP field, anything is possible. The only thing Romney appears to have so far, though, is lots of money, and that's never enough to make someone president.

Way Off

2008-01-09T00:48:00.001-06:00

I don't have much more to say about it at this hour than I already have, but I hate when people don't own up to mistakes. I thought the Democratic race was over. Nearly everything pointed to it being so, and all indications are the Clinton's campaign was as shocked as anyone about her win. (Reports are that her own internal polls had her 11 points down) But we were all wrong, and are now trying to figure out why.

The Polls

2008-01-08T23:02:00.001-06:00

It's safe to say nearly everyone is stunned by the Democratic side tonight. What's worth noting is that every single poll but one (Suffolk) had Hillary Clinton between 28 and 31 points, and she finished at 39. That means all of those were outside the margin of error. So either the methodologies were bad, or something big changed in the last few hours. I'm betting it's more the latter.

Intraders Don't Know Any More Than We Do

2008-01-08T21:15:00.000-06:00

No more of those stories about how well online markets predict elections. Intrade and others have gone up and down drastically throughout the past few months, and nothing illustrates how little we all know than the last week or two.

Between Christmas and New Year's, as Hillary seemed to be upticking, Obama's "stock" went down into the low 20s. As of yesterday, following his win in Iowa and presumed momentum in New Hampshire, it was above 70. Tonight, he is back down to the low 40s, while Clinton jumped from the low 20s to over 50.

Republican winner John McCain is not so lucky (well, not like he actually cares...). He is up slightly, 2.3 to 36.5.

Women Break Clinton's Way

2008-01-08T20:42:00.000-06:00

It now looks, shockingly enough, like a close Clinton victory, which no New Hampshire poll predicted. The apparent reason: Clinton won women 47 to 34 percent.

The polls showed Obama and Clinton running roughly even among women, so this would represent a very late and significant break. We don't know why yet, but the conventional wisdom (which seems reasonable to me) is her tearing up yesterday may have had much to do with it.

If so, you'll pardon me if I say, "you've got to be kidding me." A sympathy vote in the midst of a shameful last several days of negativity on the part of her campaign?

Well, you may say, Obama's wave had everything to do with emotion, so why can't she benefit from it too? Here's why: The emotion behind Obama's is to unite the country and overhaul the entire tone and tenor of Washington politics. You may argue whether that's doable or even desirable, but it's a weighty desire. A sympathy vote is not. It's is emotion detached from substance.

Though Clinton is a serious candidate with serious ideas, I must personally add that if somehow the type of campaigning she and her husband have been doing allows them to pull out a victory, it will be a depressing result. It will also make for a much more interesting race.

UPDATE: Clinton's people aren't much denying that raw emotion did it for them. I'm just deciding whether to be depressed or angry about that.

Analogies Are Complicated, Hugh

2008-01-08T15:33:00.001-06:00

Daniel Larison hits it on the head on Hugh Hewitt, someone I think is only listened to by other ardent Mitt Romney supporters, and bloggers looking for an easy target.

As usual, Hewitt is annoyed that people are not giving enough respect to his dear Mitt:

I heard one bit of punditry passed from microphone to microphone yesterday: If Romney doesn’t win in New Hampshire, he’s finished.

This assessment isn’t asserted about Hillary, who also planned to win early. It isn’t asserted about Mike Huckabee, Thompson or Rudy. It wasn’t asserted about Hillary, McCain, Rudy or Thompson after Iowa.

If no one is saying anything about Fred Thompson’s chances after New Hampshire (where he stands to get somewhere between 2 and 3%), that’s because everyone has already stopped paying much attention to the poor man. After all, why keep kicking a man when he’s down? Giuliani and Clinton, who could well be finished after tonight, don’t receive the same treatment because they still have significant leads in February 5 states and until recently had decent leads in national polling (the latter have since evaporated). Romney’s strategy was explicitly a traditional early-state strategy that required him to do well in the initial contests. Only after Iowa did his minions begin talking about his “national strategy.”

Additionally, plenty of people are saying that Hillary is already gone. The speculation topped Drudge yesterday, for the gods' sake. The best I've heard from most is the reasonable argument that we can't write her off yet. It's not much of an endorsement, but at this point her chances deserve no better.

If Romney loses by five points or more tonight, what good argument can be made that he's legitimate when he lost the two states on which he based his entire campaign?

His war chest? Money is one of the most overrated elements of predicting political success. It surely matters, but rarely does it make a bad candidate anything more than they actually are. Money has allowed Barack Obama to reach much of his vast potential. It could have for Romney as well, had he not been such a transparent phony, and thus run almost the opposite kind of campaign than he should have.

Only now is he running as something close to what he is: a smart, innovative leader and problem-solver. At this late stage it should not save him, if only because we will never know who the man would actually be in the White House.

Romney's Unbearable Awkwardness

2008-01-08T15:24:00.000-06:00

At least it is for one reporter. As someone who has enjoyed melted Velveeta-and-Rotel in his day, the imagery on this one is powerful.

So That's Why People Hate Mark Penn

2008-01-08T14:54:00.000-06:00

I'm a latecomer to the whole debate about Mark Penn, the much-reviled chief strategist and pollster for Hillary Clinton. His December smackdown on Hardball by his John Edwards counterpart Joe Trippi was much-deserved, but is it a case of a brilliant guy who shouldn't be put in front of a camera?

For those of you behind the story line as I am, Ezra Klein's review of Penn's book Microtrends would make one think it would be madness to put the guy in a position of any authority. The methodology is brutal:

In a chapter called “Aspiring Snipers,” Penn explains, “It’s the rare moment when a poll stops me in my tracks and reorients my understanding of things.” One such poll was conducted last fall, when Bendixen and Associates asked 601 young Californians what they’d be doing in 10 years. About 1 percent—so, a handful—said they’d be snipers. Certainly, that’s an odd reply. But Penn never mentions that the Bendixen poll had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percent—four being a larger number than one. Additionally, it’s meaningless without further study. Anyone in the age bracket would attribute it to video games, or snipers being, let’s admit it, quite cool. Yet Penn, based on no follow-up interviews, detects a “new patriotism,” and a desire “to master complex mathematical formulas like how distance or wind might affect the path of the bullet.” This simply isn’t professional work.

There appears to be much more of the same. This is admittedly a stretch, but I can't help think that one commonality between Penn's logic and the Clintons' worst examples is an unquestioning belief that they are right, which leads to many of the most outrageous statements they make. They just don't understand the criticism because they are incapable of seeing their own faults.

Huh. That sounds a bit familiar.

Limbaugh Losing it?

2008-01-08T01:45:00.000-06:00

Predicting the demise of Rush Limbaugh has always been a foolish proposition. The man is supremely talented and entertaining and has been nothing short of remarkable in holding his position as the pre-eminent radio talk host in the country for nearly 20 years.

I will not predict it either, but I will be surprised if the dynamics of this most unusual campaign don't deliver a hit to his bottom line.

Limbaugh has always been unpopular with large segments of America, but his 20-million-plus listeners came from a reliable core of passionate conservatives. Now however, the GOP is collapsing beneath his feet, riven apart by almost unbelievable incompetence, corruption, and unpopular ideology.

Republicans are angry, and while many long for a return to Reagan-era "fundamentals," a large segment do not recognize their party anymore, and are looking elsewhere. They are leaving, and mark my words, a Barack Obama administration will have every opportunity to capture much of this group for the long term.

Rush, however, is fighting against this current. So many of his core beliefs rest on his contention that Ronald Reagan was a hard-core conservative, that he won two terms, and ergo hard-core conservative ideology will win nearly any election. It is faulty logic on its face, but Republican successes in Congress beginning in 1994 partly obscured its oversimplification, and some of the real reasons for the decade-long conservative ascendancy (I'll save those for some other time).

Limbaugh has always made facts fit his view of the world rather than the other way around. It's what ideologues do. When the facts become increasingly inconvenient, their reasoning becomes all the more labyrinthine to avoid facing internal contradictions.

Another of Rush's core beliefs, without which the raison d'etre of his show would fail, is the liberal bias of the media. The media isn't just liberal, however, they're specifically biased toward the Clintons.

Flipping through caucus coverage last Thursday, I caught Rush on FOX News via phone.

It took me a moment to believe what I was hearing, and I only wish I'd recorded it for quotation. Paraphrasing, he said that all the other media outlets that evening could talk about was Huckabee, Huckabee, Huckabee. Why? Because they couldn't bear to talk about their beloved Hillary losing to Barack Obama.

That's right, he views the idea that outlets are giving more coverage to the Republican winner (which I somehow doubt, by the way) as an example of clear liberal bias. Add the fact that the press almost universally does not much care for Mrs. Clinton's style, and finds Obama a much more compelling storyline, it begs the question of how far gone one has to be to produce such a tortured rationalization.

Limbaugh is fighting not just the potential exodus of significant chunks of Republicans out of the GOP, but also its two most popular presidential candidates: Mike Huckabee and John McCain. They are "too liberal," you see. No matter they have the greatest appeal to the center, Limbaugh is positive that only true conservatives win the day.

Much of what is considered conservative orthodoxy today would come as quite a shock to conservatives of any other generation. The Party will likely need to reinvent itself after the 2008 elections. It's hard to believe Rush won't pay some ratings price as he increasingly becomes a relic of a Republican past that is in a sense fading away, and in another sense never really was.

Obama and McCain

2008-01-08T01:33:00.000-06:00

I'll grant that I enjoy David Brooks partly because he's a fair-minded centrist, and partly because I'm more interested in lateral, big-picture thinking than anything else. But enjoy him I do.

Today's column is on the strengths and weaknesses of the two men who may be the front-runners tomorrow.

On Obama:

Everybody who’s dealt with him has a story about a time when they felt Obama profoundly listened to them and understood them. One of mine came a few years ago.

I was writing columns criticizing the Republican Congress, but each time I’d throw in a few sentences slamming the Democrats, subconsciously trying to make myself feel good. One morning I got an e-mail message from Obama that roughly said: David, if you want to critique us, fine. But you’re just throwing in those stray sentences to make yourself feel good.

I felt like a bug pinned down in a display case.

...

His weakness is that he never breaks from his own group.

And McCain:

John McCain has cordial relations with Obama, but he is very different. He is most moved by examples of heroism and individual excellence. His books are about individual character and patriotism, not networks or community-building.

...

He is allergic to blind party discipline and builds radically different coalitions depending on his views on each issue — global warming, campaign finance, spending, the war. He is most offended by dishonor. He’ll be sitting in his Senate office and he’ll read about some act of selfishness — a corrupt Pentagon contract, Jack Abramoff’s scandals — and he’ll spend the next several months punishing wrongdoing.

...

McCain’s weakness is that he flies by the seat of his pants.

I'm not the first to say it - heck, Andrew Sullivan has said it about 68 times - but will echo it: A race between these two men has the potential to be the most edifying for the country in decades. They would be substantive, positive, intelligent, respectful, and would offer voters a clear choice of ideologies that would both appeal to Independents. What more could we reasonably expect?

Hillary the Third-Termer

2008-01-08T01:11:00.000-06:00

Reading a piece in the Weekly Standard yesterday, it was suggested that many thought Hillary Clinton should have succeeded her husband, not Al Gore. Others have said one of Clinton's problems is that she's run as an incumbent, based on the 1996 election, rather than the change election of 1992.

Leaving aside for now whether Hillary would be able to run as a legitimate change candidate (I think not), it occurred to me watching Saturday's ABC debate that her tone, attitude, and talents scream successor.

She is someone who could not inspire the realignment for which American politics is ripe. She doesn't inspire, and even if she did, she views far too much of the political spectrum as The Enemy. And she is, understandably, captive to the past, her husband's administration, of which she was so much a part of. Her administration would largely be an attempt at continuation.

She may, however, be perfectly suited to carry on and extend the policies of the person who does realign. She could be a Harry Truman, a George H.W. Bush, or a Lyndon Johnson, the latter of which makes it odd that she sorta' compared herself to him earlier today.

I don't mean to take the individual analogies too far, but the point is she is someone who can get things done, but much more readily in the context of a consensus that has already been achieved. None such does right now, but voters on all sides are yearning for one.

It May Not Have Been Possible

2008-01-08T00:58:00.000-06:00

How could Hillary Clinton have avoided her game-changing loss in Iowa? Blame is not in short supply, not from a press corps that generally hated working with her campaign, nor from inside the campaign itself.

We hear it was chief strategist Mark Penn's fault. That Clinton kept changing her theme. That she shouldn't have run on inevitability, which could only lead to a crash once the bubble burst. That she should've skipped Iowa, or understood it better.

They're all valid criticisms, and maybe she could have pulled it out. It's also possible that all things being equal, Barack Obama is a better candidate.

From my perspective in Iowa, Obama ran a nearly perfect campaign. He was well-organized, worked hard and was on pitch, to be sure. He also is the right man at the right time, knowing just how to channel the massive pent-up energy and frustration of supporters into an appealing vision, and more important, concrete action.

He made almost no mistakes. His campaign was remarkably united even at its lowest points. He never wavered in his approach or convictions, but he continually fine-tuned, improved. And his convictions were nearly always vindicated.

He's amazing to watch, and it's not just charisma. Against the "perfect" candidate, at a time so suited for him, we may look back and say Clinton always had an uphill battle. We just didn't know it.

How to Get More Out of Reading

2008-01-06T13:25:00.000-06:00

Some nice tips on better digesting books.

The Awkwardness of the Press Corps

2008-01-06T13:23:00.000-06:00

From Chris Hayes.

And I thought I was the only one.

Clinton's "Meltdown"

2008-01-06T12:18:00.000-06:00

Though I am not at all a fan of Hillary Clinton, I think the instant wisdom of my media brethren that she had a "meltdown" in last night's ABC debate was over the top. From Ezra Klein:

I'd add that it's a bit astonishing to watch the real-time narrative construction that went on at last night's debate. I must have heard the term "meltdown" in reference to Hillary 65 times.

She was angry and let it show. And it might hurt her significantly, if Frank Luntz's focus group has anything to say about it.

Can't we save words like "meltdown" for somebody truly comes unhinged? Like this, this, or even this, say. It's enough that sports radio has ruined all our superlatives. We must not allow the forces of e-vil to win again!

Wishful Thinking

2008-01-05T15:16:00.000-06:00

"Iowa is so small, it's like a mayor's race in a medium-sized city. It wouldn't be wise to put too much emphasis on it."

- Clinton press aide Jay Carson on the plane to New Hampshire (1/4/07)

Ian Faith: "The Boston gig has been canceled."

David St. Hubbins: "What?"

I.F.: "Yeah, I wouldn't worry about it though. It's not a big college town."

- This is Spinal Tap (1984)

Republicans for Obama?

2008-01-02T11:52:00.000-06:00

Noam Scheiber hits close to my home today, writing about following Obama supporter Monica Greene canvassing in Ankeny. It's close to home because I interviewed Monica in October for one of my favorite profile pieces.

We spoke because I had kept running into the same phenomenon over and over around Iowa: Republicans who really liked Obama. I saw them everywhere. They didn't all say they were going to vote for him, but many were, and I got the sense many others were considering it. A prominent Republican official even told me how intrigued he was.

Schreiber wonders how many such Republicans there are, and makes a very smart point:

My sense about people like Monica is that they've actually been Democrats for a long time, they just didn't know it. Monica told me she was increasingly concerned about the environment and wanted the war to end. She said she voted against Kerry in 2004, not for Bush. What kept her a Republican all those years, I think, was an unflattering mental image of who Democrats were--crusty union hacks and effete Northeastern elitists--which Obama shattered. It wouldn't shock me if there were lots more like her.

It's not that simple, but there's something to that insight. Some of that unflattering mental image, though, has been partially true in past cycles, so it wasn't altogether irrational. It would be more accurate to say that Republicans like Greene probably were not so much against Democratic policy, but not how the party was run.

As a Republican, my problem with Democrats has largely been two things: its domination by interest groups that emphasize their victimization (and consequently, division); and not enough hard-headed focus on policy results.

Democrats have surged past Republicans on the latter quality, as the GOP has largely descended into unthinking dogma and Democrats have become the fiscally responsible party.

But perhaps even more important, Obama seems to be singlehandedly changing the game on the former. George Will made the point well:

Obama's candidacy fascinates because he represents radical autonomy: He has chosen his racial identity but chosen not to make it matter much.

Other call him "post-racial," and as much as Americans hate the hyper-partisanship of national politics, they are likely even more weary of political correctness and racial tension many encounter in real life. Obama offers them the opportunity to move beyond that divide. It will be easier said that done, but the concept is so appealing to members of both parties, it will be a powerful weapon for Obama should he reach the general election.

UPDATE: The Republican mayor of Brooklyn, IA announced he would caucus for Obama tomorrow. His rhetoric sounds very close to mine:

“I’ve been a moderate Republican all my life and I simply don’t recognize these people [the GOP field],” he said. “Meanwhile, the Democrats have six solid candidates — though I think [Dennis] Kucinich is a bit out there.”

He also made a point I hadn't considered: That lots of Republicans are fed up, and will be caucusing Democrat to make sure Clinton doesn't get the nomination. If a decent number of GOPers do that, she's really in trouble.

Update h/t Andrew Sullivan

Huckabee's Evened Odds

2008-01-01T20:57:00.000-06:00

It doesn't take much to remember why Mike Huckabee surged in the polls and has stayed on top in Iowa.

The former Arkansas governor had an announced crowd of over 2,000 eating out of his hand at the Val Air Ballroom in West Des Moines tonight. It was one of the largest crowd I've personally seen for a single candidate in Iowa, and I wonder if it was the largest for any of the Republicans.

Chuck Norris on the marquee drew them in too, but the crowd cheered loud for Huck as he weaved humor, storytelling, and crowd-pleasing rhetoric to great effect in a speech given without notes.

Huckabee made the requisite pitch to go out and caucus, and then had advice on how to handle people planning to caucus for somebody else.

"Shovel your snow in their driveway. Let the air out of their tires. Disconnect their battery cables," he said, before predicting that part of his speech might be quoted once or twice by the media.

For some reason, Huckabee decided to go on before Norris, whose success in acting is clearly not the result of extemporaneous speaking. Then for the finale, Huck's wife, Janet made a few remarks (example: "I can't wait to be your First Lady because I think that would be too cool!") before bringing her husband back on stage to play a few numbers.

He called MSNBC's Joe Scarborough, noted for playing guitar in his own band, on stage to help the band through "Sweet Home Alabama," "Twist and Shout," and "Roll Over Beethoven."

It was a far cry from yesterday's narrative, when Huckabee's press conference was considered an instantly classic gaffe by much of the media. Though the criticism was a bit overblown, the affair was amateur hour, and perhaps even devious in trying to get the media to play his unaired negative ad while taking the high ground of not airing it.

What we don't know is whether many of his supporters care about such things. Charismatic populists are often forgiven much, but it's hard to withstand weeks of negative ads without running your own.

I wrote earlier about Huckabee's spotty organization. The campaign upped their game tonight, with lots of volunteers passing out registration cards and offering caucus locations. There's a lot more to a good organization than that, but it's something.

The big something will be whether all these people show up on caucus night, though. As with the Democratic race, nobody really knows, including the campaigns.

* - Photo: Huckabee and Scarborough rock out to "Sweet Home Alabama" while, presumably, someone with a lighter yells, "Free Bird, dude!"

Deconstructing the Poll

2008-01-01T18:38:00.000-06:00

A few interesting tidbits from the Register poll I haven't seen anyone else discuss:

Most surprising of all to me was that Obama held a one-point lead among union households. This defies all conventional wisdom, as Clinton and Edwards have gotten most of the major union endorsements (Dodd got the big Firefighters support), and Obama is not thought to appeal as well to working-class voters as some.

A friend of mine said that a union endorsement doesn't mean rank-and-file support, but still, this is a startling number. It's either great news for Obama, or evidence that the overall results are off.

Clinton may have a big lead nationally on the question of electability with Democrats, but she leads Obama by three points here. That's big, because it takes away a big fall-back decision point for voters who decide at the last minute. The other fall-back, her experience, is a good one to have, but Iowa polling has consistently shown that Democrats prefer change to experience.

Something else: One would think that last is true even more for Independents and Republicans, especially the latter. Why would Republicans change their registration to Democratic if they didn't want big change?

Huckabee's Odds

2008-01-01T18:14:00.000-06:00

Mike Huckabee's campaign must be heartened by last night's Des Moines Register's poll numbers. Huckabee has surged mainly because he's very likeable, uses populist rhetoric, and has been relatively unvetted. That last is changing, but he may still retain a lead come Thursday.

The problem for his campaign is, he will need to take a lead into the caucuses in order to win. He does have the advantage that his supporters could be more excited about voting for him than his opponents (except Ron Paul). But will he get them out to vote?

My personal dealings with his campaign have been less than impressive. Iowa director Eric Woolson seems a good human being with knowledge of how things work here, but they operated long with a skeletal staff, both here and in Arkansas. They've added staff since the surge, and the growing pains show.

I've called the campaign office and gotten bad information from staff more than once. Despite several attempts I haven't been able to get onto the campaign's e-mail tree. And as of this moment, his main Iowa Web page hasn't been had its events schedule updated past December 20th.

There is little evidence the campaign will have a strong get-out-the-vote effort. The Romney campaign gives off the opposite vibe, one that has been fine-tuning itself for many months, has dropped bales of money on the state, and is a well-oiled machine. One would think that even if Romney's supporters are less enthusiastic, his campaign will bring out all they can.

Huckabee has done almost nothing to downgrade his expectations, while Romney has for weeks been saying he just needs to finish in the top three.

It will be one of those surreal political moments if Romney beats Huckabee by a few points on Thursday and, despite outspending Huckabee many times over in any resource you can name, comes out with the media calling it a big win.

Clinton's Pakistan Gaffe

2008-01-01T17:49:00.000-06:00

These things get blown too out of proportion, and I don't believe this is a major gaffe. But if Obama made the same statement, do you believe Clinton wouldn't be all over him today?

Biden was critical of Clinton on this very point earlier today, by the way, although in Indianola later in the afternoon I didn't hear him bring it up.

UPDATE: Ok, now it's a big(ger) deal. From Ben Smith:

A spokesman for Clinton, Howard Wolfson, said Clinton was referring to Musharraf's party, not the president himself.

...

But Clinton's words appear unambiguously to describe Musharraf himself as a candidate.

"If President Musharraf wishes to stand for election, then he should abide by the same rules that every other candidate will have to follow," she told CNN's Wolf Blitzer (.pdf) Dec. 28.

"He could be the only person on the ballot. I don't think that's a real election," she told ABC's George Stephanopolous December 30.

Stop it already!

It's easy for me to despise President Bush. There are too many reasons to be able to pick one. With former president Clinton, it was primarily because he (and Hillary at times) would lie so often and brazenly as to insult my intelligence. It's an extraordinarily visceral reaction for me, I admit, but I also don't think it's inaccurate.

Misdefining Rationality

2008-01-01T16:44:00.000-06:00

David Brooks has an excellent article on why Mitt Romney would be a big loser for Republicans in 2008. But both he and Jason Zengerle incorrectly identify his rationality as the problem. From Zengerle:

David Brooks correctly diagnoses it: it's his rationality. As Brooks writes:

The most impressive thing about Mitt Romney is his clarity of mind. When he set out to pursue his party’s nomination, he studied the contours of the Republican coalition and molded himself to its forms.
[snip]
And yet as any true conservative can tell you, the sort of rational planning Mitt Romney embodies never works. The world is too complicated and human reason too limited. The PowerPoint mentality always fails to anticipate something. It always yields unintended consequences.
And what Romney failed to anticipate is this: In turning himself into an old-fashioned, orthodox Republican, he has made himself unelectable in the fall.

I think Brooks is right about this. Romney, in his heart of hearts, is probably a fairly unorthodox Republican. And an unorthodox Republican would actually have a decent--albeit not great--shot at beating the Democratic nominee in 2008. But one look at any of the numerous polls showing a generic Democratic presidential candidate trouncing a generic Republican one reveals just how unelectable an old-fashioned, orthodox Republican will be in '08. Hence Romney's problem.

The problem with Romney's approach that it was tactically rational, but strategically irrational. It was based on the belief Brooks hits dead on that Romney decided to run as the definition of a conservative that was never coherent, and is fading into oblivion.

And it left out certain key assumptions, such as the fact that most voters actually like authenticity, and that the insulting level of pandering on the part of Romney would hold up through a general election.

Romney's campaign has been run like a marketing strategy, something the candidate knows well. It's been well-executed and successful as far as its short-term goals go. But when one considers the goals of winning in 2008 and being able to govern successfully, it is decidedly not rational.

Just How Big Do You Think Ethanol is?

2008-01-01T16:29:00.000-06:00

David Epso is right that the issues change as soon as the caucuses are over and head to New Hampshire. But I've heard one story too many that talks about how dominant an issue ethanol is in Iowa.

Sure it matters, but one recent report on the general state of the GOP race said not supporting ethanol subsidies was a big reason John McCain was so far down here.

It isn't. McCain has trailed mainly because a whole lot of Republicans just don't like him. For his issue stances, for not being an ideologue, for being too cozy with the media, take your pick. Ethanol is way down the list, and in fact in a recent Iowa debate he volunteered that he was against subsidies even though he wasn't asked about it.

Voters ask about a lot of other issues before they ask about ethanol. Alternative fuels and biofuels in particular are significant, but much of that has to do with wind, R&D spending, and nuclear power.

I'm just sayin', don't oversell the point, mmkay?

Biden Makes His Closing Pitch

2008-01-01T16:02:00.001-06:00

Des Moines is so odd this morning. The streets are mostly deserted on a holiday, except for the several-block radii around campaign events, where the picture couldn't be more different.

Joe Biden made his pitch in downtown Des Moines at noon at the Raccoon River Brewing Company, which would normally be packed with paying patrons that time of day.

The man has a lot of sympathy, as the perhaps 500 people in attendance make clear. Like one could see with Mike Huckabee before he broke big, Biden's relatively smaller audiences loved this guy. He's a great orator, and has a seemingly lethal combination of intellect, gravity, and passion.

After introducing his rather large family - Biden claimed 22 of them had dinner together last night - the Delaware Senator gave a shortened version of his stump speech, playing up his great experience and long record of authoring and shepherding major bills through Congress.

If anyone could compete with Obama for Independents and Republicans, this would be the guy. But he won't, because too many people don't think he can win.

It's that concept that is so frustrating to Biden and his supporters. Why do you want to vote for someone who isn't as smart as your Secretary of State, Biden would ask crowds rhetorically, referencing the job many had picked out for him months ago.

I've heard his supporters ask why the media "let" Huckabee rise in the fall, while Biden has stayed where he is. It's a great question, and here's the reason: Republicans were looking for somebody else because they didn't really like any of their other candidates. Democrats loved theirs, and there didn't exist that vacuum begging for an alternative candidate to fill it. That's not the only reason, but I believe it's the only one that really matters.

So Biden remains the second choice of, I think, a lot of Iowans, and could easily have a big role in the next administration. He may surprise with a strong showing on Thursday, but it won't be anywhere near the top tier, unfortunately for many.

* - Photo: Legion fans await Biden's entrance to the Raccoon River Brewing Co.

Kucinich Signals Obama Support

2008-01-01T15:52:00.000-06:00

This just in from the Kucinich camp:

Kucinich Urges Supporters to
Back Obama on Second Iowa Ballot

For Immediate Release - Tuesday, January 01, 2008

DES MOINES, IA - Democratic Presidential candidate and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich opened the New Year by publicly asking his Iowa supporters to vote for him in the caucuses this Thursday, and suggesting that if he did not make the 15% threshold, their second ballot should be for Senator Barack Obama. "This is obviously an 'Iowa-only' recommendation, as Sen. Obama and I are competing in the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday where I want to be the first choice of New Hampshire voters.

"I hope Iowans will caucus for me as their first choice this Thursday, because of my singular positions on the war, on health care, and trade. This is an opportunity for people to stand up for themselves. But in those caucus locations where my support doesn't reach the necessary threshold, I strongly encourage all of my supporters to make Barack Obama their second choice. Sen. Obama and I have one thing in common: Change."

# # #

Second-choice votes could end up deciding Iowa, so this sort of thing definitely matters. However, Kucinich has barely run in Iowa, and will likely has less support that the approximately four percent he showed in pre-caucus entrance polling in 2004.

If a deal is struck by one of the top three with Dodd, or especially Biden or Richardson, though, it could be significant.

Biden and Richardson are particularly interesting. I get the feeling that Richardson would endorse Clinton if he dropped out, but that Biden would support Obama.

However, it's possible each's supporters would feel the opposite. If Biden's
are with him due to experience, it would seem Obama would be an unusual place for them to end up. And Richardson's supporters seem very much about big change in Washington and could be drawn to Obama or Edwards.

Then again, I can tell you much of Biden's appeal has to do with his great speaking ability and his judgment. So, as with so many other things about this race, what do we really know?

UPDATE: Time's Jay Carney writes that Kucinich's move is a "huge deal" because of how much it meant to Edwards in 2004. It was significant for Edwards then, but not huge, and it will be much less so this year. Kucinich is polling much less than four years ago, mainly because the Democratic field is so much better this time around.

Who Will Surprise?

2008-01-01T15:43:00.001-06:00

Beating expectations in the caucuses can be more important than winning, and most everyone has a theory on who's going to surprise on Thursday.

There are several good candidates, but let me throw my three cents (inflation and all...) for Ron Paul. Here's a few reasons why:

His supporters are Committed (a lower-case "c" doesn't seem sufficient). Paul raises money and draws crowds almost literally without effort. He's a conduit completing an untapped circuit with a great deal of power, a power he seems a bit unsure how to use. Most of these people need no organization to turn out.
His opponents' supporters are not committed. Oh sure, each candidate has their hard-cores, but no other Republican engenders nearly the intensity of support.
He doesn't really have competition. Every time I go to a Paul event, someone asks him if he'd consider running as an Independent. The thing is, he already is in everything but name. His supporters are by and large not drawn from other candidates, they're people being drawn into a system they'd given up on. A surge by another Republican isn't going to hurt him much.
Polls underrepresent him. I don't have proof of this, but given that Paul's supporters are largely outside the mainstream and obsessed with privacy rights, it's hard to imagine that a lot of them are picking up a lot of calls from pollsters.

He will not win the GOP nomination no matter how much the true-believers would like to believe so, and it's not because the media isn't giving him a fair shake. But I think he'll outperform his poll numbers, and it wouldn't shock me to see him in third place on caucus night.

Obama and the Independents, Part II

2008-01-01T15:34:00.000-06:00

I was talking to a local Iowa journalist friend of mine this morning. He said he is a registered Independent, and was quite surprised to be called yesterday on his cell phone by the Obama campaign. It's a number that he said only 15-20 people have, and he couldn't figure out how they got it.

It's just one data point, so no reading too much into it. The top three Democratic campaigns have amazing organizations in Iowa, though, probably all better than any past candidate's effort. I have a feeling political consultants will be dissecting for years to come what some are doing here today.

The Game-Changing Register Poll

2008-01-01T14:56:00.000-06:00

Like the most desperate of political junkies I am, New Year's Eve had to wait. The dog had been walked for the evening and a change of attire had taken place, but I wasn't going to leave the house until the Des Moines Register poll came out at 9:00.

The Register poll is influential here if only by virtue of its being the state's largest paper, and because of its impressive reputation on politics. But it was also last week voted by far the most reliable poll by professional pollsters.

Every other poll showed Clinton stabilizing, Obama down, and Edwards up ever since Christmas weekend. Huckabee had been dropping from his earlier heights as well, leading many to wonder if he'd peaked too early, and whether his gaffes and Romney's tough attacks were taking their toll.

A shocker it turned out to be. The Register showed Obama widening his lead since last month, now leading Clinton by seven and Edwards by eight, outside the margin of error. Huckabee stayed up on Romney by six.

The big story is on the Democratic side, where the poll predicted nearly 50 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers weren't Democrats. Forty percent of Independents and five percent of Republicans said they would caucus for Democrats on Thursday.

Rival campaigns were highly critical, saying such numbers would be unprecedented, and indeed they would be. Clinton's campaign was quick to point out that if only Democrats were polled, Clinton led Obama.

But don't be shocked if it actually happens. In months on the trail, I constantly run into Independents and Republicans who are disgusted with the GOP, and the vast majority of them favor Obama. How many will overcome the psychological barrier of changing their party registration to vote in the Democratic caucuses?

I won't pretend to have a read on that, but if ever there was an election for it to happen, this may be it.

All the candidates have been making their best cases for electability. I did a couple of pieces on Obama's appeal to Independents and Democrats back in October, and the most striking thing about my research for them was that the analysts and non-Democrats I spoke to were more optimistic about Obama's appeal than his campaign representatives. I don't think they've been pushing the issue enough, honestly.

But one thing is clear: if the poll bears out, Obama will have largely proven his general election viability in the first contest.

Obama Brings in the Canvassers

2008-01-01T02:28:00.000-06:00

There must be an explicit code among non-Iowa journalists that one must complain about how cold Iowa is as soon as one gets here. Maybe it's part of a union contract.

When I read these words, I inwardly...chortle? That sounds about right. Having grown up quite a way to the north of Des Moines, I find the idea is silly that 32 degrees is frigid.

But today I agree. Walking the two blocks from my car to Roosevelt High School was physically painful in 10-degree temperatures and a strong headwind. So now someone in Calgary can laugh to himself at what a wimp I am.

Weather, and the fact that it is New Year's Day with its college football buffet, didn't stop 1,000-plus people from coming to the Obama canvass kick-off here, however.

The pre-caucus mania is cresting, the result on the Democratic side of a tight race and numerous likeable candidates. Lots of people are ready to go to the wall for their candidates. I don't know how many blocks people are going to get today going door-to-door, but they've cleared a big psychological hurdle even getting this far.

* Photo: Obama on stage with wife Michelle, and daughters Malia Ann and Sasha

This Answers So Many Questions

2007-12-31T01:57:00.000-06:00

Psychiatrist Paul Steinberg has a fascinating article in the NYT about binge drinking and how it affects long-term brain function in rats.

...after a longstanding abstinence following heavy binge-drinking, adult rats can learn effectively — but they cannot relearn.

When put into a tub of water and forced to continue swimming until they find a platform on which to stand, the sober former binge-drinking rats and the normal control rats (who had never been exposed to alcohol) learned how to find the platform equally well. But when the experimenters abruptly moved the platform, the two groups of rats had remarkably different performances. The rats without previous exposure to alcohol, after some brief circling, were able to find the new location. The former binge-drinking rats, however, were unable to find the new platform; they became confused and kept circling the site of the old platform.

Why? The toxicity brought on by heavy drinking lingers long in the brain.

From a political perspective, though, this quote warrants the double take:

Even after longstanding sobriety this inflammatory response translates into a tendency to stay the course, a diminished capacity for relearning and maladaptive decision-making.

"Stay the course?" President Bush isn't mentioned in the article, but he appears to be there in spirit, so to speak.

The obvious question is whether results like these can be extrapolated to humans. Maybe not, although the author thinks there's a good case to believe they can.

Our understanding of how the brain operates is experiencing giant leaps forward. When future historians try to piece together how such a disastrous presidency happened, it's an area that will receive substantial attention.

Hat tip to the High Plains Bull Moose.

How Negative Will Clinton Go in Iowa?

2007-12-06T14:46:00.000-06:00

David Corn asks, and the answer from inside Clinton sources seems to be, as much as we have to.

An interesting flip of conventional wisdom from one:

"We once thought he had to win Iowa to stay alive," this Clintonite says. "We now think that we might have to win to stay alive." Will the fight get even more nasty as Iowa approaches? "There's still plenty of time for that," this person says. "And that's how things go in politics. There may be no choice."

From a politico's point of view, sure. But in the context of this race, doesn't going negative, especially by the book, feed right into Obama's narrative? Voters are always fed up, but this year seems worse than usual. Obama is telling them he's the one who can change that for good, that there is a choice in whether a candidate has to attack.

Of course, it depends on which attacks voters believe are unfair. It appears Iowans believe Obama and Edwards were on the right side of the line with theirs. Clinton's have sounded harsher, and she also faces a problem that plenty of voters think she's a bit nasty underneath anyway.

Little doubt she's tough as her campaign sells her. How much toughness will voters want?

Democratic Nightmares of Huckabee?

2007-12-06T13:15:00.000-06:00

I first saw Mike Huckabee in person at the Ames Straw Poll on Aug. 11. So did a lot of other people, who took notice of his moderately-surprising second-place finish. A rise in the polls did not follow, however, and few took him seriously.

Later that month I followed him to a meet and greet at a pizza restaurant in Pella, IA. Only about 50 people came out to meet the man, but most were blown away. They loved the guy. That event, and the reasons they love him, more than anything made me think if Huckabee could somehow, some way get some traction, he could easily be the toughest opponent for Democrats in 2008.

Chris Cillizza examines that premise here. He lists some good reasons Huckabee may be tough, including his media savvy and facility with debates.

Here was my thinking at the time, and it hasn't much changed:

He's a New Testament conservative. It's the Old Testament guys (and they are almost all guys) that tend to dominate religious conservative discourse, the kind that tends to be more about punishment for the guilty and fear of great social change and creeping immorality (aborition, gay marriage, etc.). The Old Testament rhetoric, and fundamentalism that often goes with it, scares a lot of Independent voters. Huckabee talks forgiveness, kindness and human potential. He doesn't scare people, he makes them feel welcome.
Huckabee may be the only candidate who can hold together a GOP in danger of fracturing. Economic conservatives have their problems with the Other Man From Hope, but it's hard to see them abandoning the Party over it, especially since he's taken a pledge not to raise taxes. And while good-sized chunks of the religious right don't trust Giuliani, McCain or Romney, they're eating up Huckabee. That's where most of the Republican activists are, the ones who do much of the ground work in campaigns.
I've talked to a lot of Republicans (mostly in Iowa) who have a soft spot for Obama. Some are going to vote for him. When talking to Democrats, Huckabee elicits the same sort of response. He's the guy in the GOP field they don't mind.

In a general election campaign, certainly partisanship would take over and opponents wouldn't feel as charitably toward Huckabee. But the man leads with compassion, and is hardly a doctrinaire economic conservative. He doesn't have the rough edges to turn Democrats off the way many of his Republican rivals do.

Of course, all this is based on what we see on the surface. The media is starting to vet Huck, importing whatever skeletons he may have from Arkansas. We don't know what we'll find or how the public will react. If he comes through relatively unscathed, though, he could be a formidable wild card for whom Democrats likely don't have a game plan.

Update: TNR's Barron Young Smith writes for the opposition.

Wonkin' Out on Obama's Health Plan

2007-12-03T20:06:00.001-06:00

That now-ubiquitous figure that Barack Obama's health plan would leave 15 million uninsured? Apparently Jonathan Coen put it out there, and he writes today on how he came up with it, and how he still thinks it's about right.

Slate's Tim Noah argues that's ok, because Obama's plan makes the most sense politically.

Noam Schreiber essentially agrees, but has something in the back of his mind. A doubt, I think:

As I say, this argument comes pretty close to convincing me that Obama has the right approach. On the other hand, it's Obama who tells us that if we want to win the next election, we can't be afraid of losing it. If you accept Cohn's claim that his plan leaves millions of people uninsured, and Noah's claim that it's nonetheless the more politically viable way to structure a non-single-payer plan, then this seems like precisely the kind of overly-cautious thinking Obama was warning us about.

Point taken, but it's also arguably one of those bipartisan situations Obama has been talking about. Major health care reform would be landmark legislation, and if he believes using this approach will achieve a strong plurality in Congress, he may have a case.

I haven't heard him do it, and both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards may have even stronger points when they say a mandate is necessary. But there are a lot of times in politics when two principles come into conflict, and that's one reason ideologues don't get elected president.

NIE and the Race

2007-12-03T19:44:00.000-06:00

In what amounted to a bombshell to most everyone today, the National Intelligence Estimate concluded that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003-4, and the White House had tried to block its release for nearly a year to get them to change their assessment.

Things like this make Ron Paul's constant state of incredulity perfectly understandable to me. But others will write on such things.

How will the revelations affect the presidential race? Do things like this even shock Americans anymore? Getting to 30 percent approval may be about as low as a president can get already, and Republicans aren't exactly trying to identify themselves with the administration.

Hillary Clinton got a lot of heat starting in October for her vote to mark the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. Whether it is or not likely hasn't changed. But John Edwards loves to point out that in imposing the resulting sanctions on Iran, President Bush listed as a reason that the country is a "proliferater of weapons of mass destruction."

The NIE may give more ammunition to use against Clinton, although the issue is admittedly a bit arcane. But as they say, as close as Iowa is, any edge may turn out to be important.

The 5587th Insult to Intelligence Already This Month

2007-12-03T15:27:00.000-06:00

If you watch the NFL you can't avoid the ridiculous New Orleans Visa commercial (sorry about the weird quality of video) unless you mute it like I obsessively do.

Look, I understand marketing. It's like being a defense attorney; you're making the best case you can for your product, not a balanced presentation of the facts. But the Visa campaign is intellectually insulting.

The ads all show intricate dances of humans (possibly Cirque du Soleil members on their off days) engaging in commerce, only to have the finely-tuned machinery break down when some moron tries to pay with...CASH. Does anybody remember that cash is faster than paying by credit card? It's not like we all haven't tried both options and don't have a frame of reference. Even when you don't have to sign a receipt on some smaller transactions, it's not like it's faster. How does this make any sense?

The New Orleans commercial is by far the worst, though, because the subhuman that screws up the line is wearing a pink polo shirt with a sweater tied around his shoulders while manly Saints fans wait behind him to make their purchases of, I don't know, giant foam fingers perhaps. That's right, little prissy boy is demeaning men everywhere! Please avoid rolling your eyes until he leaves!

The oddest things get my blood to boilin'.

Reich Rips Clinton Strategy

2007-12-03T15:10:00.000-06:00

There's nothing like a devastating critique from a friend:

I’m becoming increasingly concerned about the stridency and inaccuracy of charges in Iowa -- especially coming from my old friend. While I’m as hard-boiled as they come about what’s said in campaigns, I just don’t think Dems should stoop to this.

...

Yesterday, HRC suggested O lacks courage. "There's a big difference between our courage and our convictions, what we believe and what we're willing to fight for," she told reporters in Iowa, saying Iowa voters will have a choice "between someone who talks the talk, and somebody who's walked the walk." Then asked whether she intended to raise questions about O’s character, she said: "It's beginning to look a lot like that."

I just don’t get it. If there’s anyone in the race whose history shows unique courage and character, it's Barack Obama. HRC’s campaign, by contrast, is singularly lacking in conviction about anything. Her pollster, Mark Penn, has advised her to take no bold positions and continuously seek the political center, which is exactly what she’s been doing.

All is fair in love, war, and politics. But this series of slurs doesn't serve HRC well. It will turn off voters in Iowa, as in the rest of the country. If she's worried her polls are dropping, this is not the way to build them back up.

Obama's Iowa Trench Warfare

2007-12-02T23:22:00.000-06:00

MSNBC's Carrie Dann says she's become convinced of Barack Obama's organization in Iowa.

Being skeptical of it makes some sense. Obama has little national campaign experience, and Howard Dean's collapse in part from over-reliance on young voters is still fresh in peoples' minds.

What I've seen over the last four months in Iowa, though, is that Obama's structure is first-rate. His many staffers in the state have impressively executed every event I've attended, and generally exceeded expectations in head-to-head matchups with other campaigns. The turnout they delivered at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner was no fluke.

Make no mistake, Hillary Clinton's and John Edwards' are also formidable, but they underestimate Obama's at their peril. Clinton's got a great machine, but Obama's supporters are more enthusiastic. Many of Edwards' proponents are too, but at big events like J-J, his lack of money is evident, and he can't scale his efforts the way Clinton and Obama can.

There are too many unknown variables to predict the outcome of the caucuses. Especially with students, I bet none of the campaigns really has a good idea who is going to show up on Jan. 3.

David Redlawsk, political science professor at the University of Iowa, told me recently that the campaigns that exceed expectations at the caucuses almost always have significantly better organizations than most of us so-called experts knew about. From everything I've seen, this year I'd bet Obama will pick up that award after the dust settles.

Clinton Begins Heavy Shelling

2007-12-02T21:54:00.001-06:00

There was a a little-noticed moment in the Las Vegas Democratic debate in November. You know, the one where Hilary Clinton came out fighting back hard again Barack Obama and John Edwards. Clinton took direct aim at Obama's health care plan, saying "the most important thing here is to level with the American people."

She wasn't just presaging her line on their policy differences, she was going after Obama on character, his greatest strength and perhaps her greatest weakness. And in doing so, she brazenly appropriated a line he had been using in his own speeches about her.

Now Clinton is coming after Obama even harder, and from multiple directions. Over the past few days, Clinton's campaign has stepped up attacks on health care, and essentially charged Obama with laziness and lack of fight in the Illinoins legislature. And how thick must be the opposition research file they have when they quote a former teacher talking about him wanting to be president in kindergarten?

The whole "turn up the heat" on Republicans thing lasted about a week, yes? Clinton's campaign is arguing it has been under constant attack for a month, and needs to respond by "drawing distinctions."

That's a valid reason, and Clinton's attacks are at least plausible. The problem is, Obama never made the argument that going after other Democrats to draw distinctions was a bad thing. Clinton did in order to try to defang her challengers. When it didn't work, she revealed her original contention was nothing but posturing.

David Weigel over at Reason sums it up well while investigating Clinton's charges of Obama's PAC acting unethically. He argues Clinton's PAC disbursed money to potential presidential allies in exactly the same way Obama's did, and simply shut it down a bit earlier. The same pattern is evident:

That's what this is all about, of course: A Rovian attack-from-weakness ploy. The Clintons have played faster and looser with fundraising and donating-for-influence than any Democrat in history, so an attack on Obama's funds is unexpected, the sort of thing that could muddy both of their images—although he would have more to lose.

And that's the point. Even if Clinton is sullied by going negative, Obama's got farther to fall. It's cynical, often effective, and will likely remain a big part of her campaign until the nomination is decided.

Romney's Faith, Out Front

2007-12-02T17:42:00.000-06:00

Via Mark Halperin (more here), Mitt Romney will make his "religion speech" Thursday in Texas, after apparently much internal deliberation.

Romney is hoping voters see it much like JFK's 1960 speech, also given in Texas, about Catholicism. Paraphrased, that means, "I know you haven't elected someone of my faith before, but I'm not a religious nutjob even if what you may have heard about Mormonism sounds that way. Nothing to worry about here."

It's now, and will be, almost impossible to figure how big an issue Mormonism will be in the election since even if it is, voters aren't likely to say so. I don't think it's his big problem, though. It's that voters don't know what they'd really be getting with a Romney-marked ballot. He's not the personality type that can sell a life-changing transformation to a mass audience, as impressed as they may be with him in person. He looks too much like he's executing a marketing plan.

It seems hard to imagine the decision to give the speech wasn't heavily influenced by Mike Huckabee's dramatic rise in Iowa, especially since his support has come from giant chunks of the evangelical Christians Romney needs to beat Rudy Giuliani.

Romney has been telegraphing his strategy the last few days. He's making the explicit case that if GOP religious voters want to stop Giuliani, they would be wasting their vote on Huckabee. I don't buy the idea that Huckabee doesn't have a chance at the nomination, but the caucuses, and Romney's campaign, may come down to whether Iowans do.

Is There a Democratic Huckabee?

2007-12-02T17:10:00.000-06:00

At an event in Des Moines two weeks ago, I asked Joe Biden if this could be the first presidential election where being a white male is a disadvantage. He laughed and said the whole idea of having a woman and African-American in the lead was pretty cool (well, maybe he used slightly different words), but that in these dangerous times, people would go with experience.

Jonathan Alter says Hillary Clinton may be touting hers, but the second-tier Democrats are the ones that really have it. And one of them might make a surge as a result:

If Clinton wasn't worried about Obama in Iowa, she wouldn't be bashing him every chance she gets. Should she lose there, the door might open for a second-tier candidate to get competitive. You think I'm crazy? That's what they said when I wrote about Mike Huckabee in August.

Biden does get similar reaction to Huckabee at the events I've seen in Iowa. The relatively few people who see them come away loving both. So why hasn't Biden gotten the uptick Huckabee has in the last month?

The problem with Alter's analogy is that in general, Republicans don't like their field, but Democrats do. The GOP contenders, especially in Iowa with so many Christian conservatives looking for a better choice, was wide open for a guy like Huckabee.

Both Bill Richardson and Biden have made mini-surges in Iowa, but Richardson has never gotten beyond about 12, while Biden peaked around six percent. It's possible John Edwards could tank and one of the other two sneaks into third, but even that won't put them in position to win the nomination. They're cursed with front-runners that haven't disappointed primary voters.

Speaking of Edwards, Alter slips in this surpriser without fanfare:

Edwards may yet prevail; Iowa is once again as fluid as ethanol. But if he doesn't win the Jan. 3 caucuses—he's been steadily losing altitude since early summer—he says he'll drop out.

Plenty of people have speculated that very thing (and one wonders how Edwards would be doing without all that speculation, actually), but I've never heard anyone report him saying it. The nightmare for Clinton would have to be Edwards dropping before New Hampshire, and his support largely going to caucus-winner Obama.

Asserting What We Want to Believe

2007-07-20T18:31:00.001-05:00

It's come to the point where literally every day or two I expect to awake to an absurd, intellectually offensive announcement from the Bush Administration, and they have always lived up to those expectations the last few months. Partly this is because Congress is applying more pressure, and the media digging up more secreted information, to which the White House needs to react.

I've explained my past support for Bush roughly this way: I firmly think that almost all people believe they are doing the right things even when they're not, and that on policy issues there are often multiple plausible answers that come from differences in philosophy. My internal occam's razor gives me strong resistance to conspiracy theories and explanations of behavior that question motivations as somehow craven or stupid, instead of really thinking through what another person is saying. I thus tend to give pretty much all people the benefit of the doubt with their intentions until they prove me wrong.

Usually this works. In the case of Bush, it ended up being a huge blind spot for his policy decisions that, still a bit unbelievably to me, really have turned out to be almost as bad as many detractors were saying they were. I still don't doubt Bush believes he's doing the right things, but his intellect is not up to the tasks required of his job, and his ability to rationalize decisions is more than up to it.

Which brings us to the latest bombshell, reported in the Washington Post here, that basically says that if the president makes a claim of executive privilege, the Justice Department, by the definition of the "unitary executive" concept that says that the president essentially is the will of the entire executive branch, will never investigate the president.

Huh.

From the Post article:

David B. Rifkin, who worked in the Justice Department and White House counsel's office under presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, praised the position and said it is consistent with the idea of a "unitary executive." In practical terms, he said, "U.S. attorneys are emanations of a president's will." And in constitutional terms, he said, "the president has decided, by virtue of invoking executive privilege, that is the correct policy for the entire executive branch."

What the White House is saying is that if Congress has a problem with what's going on, too bad, because the president defines his own powers, and what he will or will not allow Congress to do. Now, I have some sympathy for the idea of a strong executive branch in some cases, but how can anyone think this is a good idea, or even makes sense?

First, the unitary executive theory is senseless because only about 3000 of its members are political appointments by the president. The others are bureaucrats who have an at-times deserved reputation for inefficiency and resistance to change. But that independence is also a good thing, especially when we're talking about legal disputes.

If we think attorneys are there to uphold the president's version of the law, we're in serious trouble. But that's what much of the U.S. Attorney firing flap is seemingly about. Few doubt Bush being within his rights to put in people that reflect his philosophy, but how is a philosophy that protects one party and a president's own people really a philosophy? It isn't, it's an attempt to pursue power through unethical means.

And even assuming that the unitary executive concept did make sense, it would clearly not apply to self-prosecution! What other response can we reasonably have other than that this is Bush's attempt to expand and protect his own power without much limit? It seems to be the classic case of someone believing that their own beliefs are so right and unassailable, that they are too important for anyone else to be allowed to dispute them.

Congress should do whatever is necessary to force compliance with its requests for information to aid in its investigations into its various legitimate targets. Once more, the Administration has brazenly insulted us, and such precedents as they are attempting to set need to be forcefully fought.

Russia, Part 2

2007-07-19T17:11:00.000-05:00

I swear, I'm not looking for things that make me angry about Russia, they just keep turning up. Now it seems there's a Kremlin-sponsored summer camp for about 10,000 youths that depicts the leaders of Other Russia (the coalition of non-Putin parties dedicated to averting a de facto dictatorship in the country, put together and arguably led by former chess champion Garry Kasparov) as prostitutes, and apparently teaches the li'l campers that they're fascists. Funny how "democratic" gets confused with fascists so often in authoritarian regimes. How long shall we give Other Russia before it is banned or chased from the political scene?

Checkers? Done.

2007-07-19T13:58:00.000-05:00

It seems that a program has been created that can win or draw any possible game of checkers you can think up. Given its much more limited scope and set of available moves compared to chess, it shouldn't be surprising that we still have a long way to go to defeat the future Mecha-Kasparov on autopilot.

Link

Russia Again Steps Down

2007-07-19T13:45:00.000-05:00

A la' Keith Olbermann's Countdown, yet more evidence that Russia is the Worst Country in the Wooooooorld. The U.S. and Britain have not been sterling actors on the international stage these past years, and deserve criticism. But Russia's stance that it will stop cooperating with the fight against international terrorism if a murder suspect, one that they may well have asked to commit the murder in question, is the height of irresponsible national egotism. We should fear Russia as much if not more than Iran and North Korea for the long-term.

A History of the Simpsons

2007-07-19T12:49:00.000-05:00

Who says this is all politics? I don't know if the upcoming Simpsons movie is going to be great or not (I'm predicting a Rotten Tomatoes score of 75% for whatever that's worth), but I'm still looking forward to it. After 18 years on the air, it's almost an institutional part of my life. And to get me caught up for the film, and all behind-the-scenes and stuff, Vanity Fair has an oral history from the people who worked on it and were involved. Even Rupert Murdoch speaks...

Cheney and the Environment, Part II

2007-06-27T22:51:00.000-05:00

I already wrote a fair amount about the Washington Post series that wrapped up today with chapter 4 on Cheney's environmental legacy as Vice President. Kevin Drum's blog mentions former EPA head Christine Todd Whitman's admission that she resigned because she couldn't defend the ultra-lax environmental regulations she was being asked to write. He ends with this:

Needless to say, the power and refinery industry was a heavy contributor to the Bush-Cheney campaign. Just a coincidence, though, I'm sure.

The money didn't hurt, but the whole idea of buying votes and influence is generally overblown. Money will get you face time with a candidate, but beyond that it's sort of a chicken-or-egg argument: did energy companies contribute to buy policies that they wanted, or did they contribute heavily because they knew Bush-Cheney already supported the policies they wanted? Both happen, but I think it's usually the latter.

Religious Republicans Staying With Bush?

2007-06-27T22:35:00.000-05:00

That's the conclusion of a recent Pew Research poll, which showed that though support for President Bush's job approval has dropped, that still a whopping 71% of Religious Republicans approve, and 61% of other Republicans*.

I will leave aside for the moment how it is even possible for that large a segment of people could approve of Bush's job in office overall. I will also note that he has been far more supportive of social conservatism than he is commonly given credit for, though the stories of his administration's contempt for the religious right in other ways have been well-reported.

My biggest question has to do with the strength of support. I watch and read a lot of Republican commentary on the president, and talk to a lot of Republican activists where I live. It's difficult to find anyone who strongly supports Bush anymore, and all my instincts tell me that a good chunk of the 71% and 61% may approve of the job he is doing, but their support is much softer than it once was. The overwhelming feeling I get in talking to Bush supporters is that they're very disappointed, but he's their guy, and he's still a lot better than Hillary Clinton.

I'm not confident enough in my gut to make any grand pronouncements, but I think if the administration is looking to these numbers for support, it should take them with a large grain of salt.

* - Note that if between 61-71% of all Republicans approve of the job Bush is doing, and his overall rating is 29%, that would mean that among Democrats and Independents, his approval must be around single digits...

Remaking the World

2007-06-27T21:59:00.000-05:00

David Brooks wrote last week of a recent conference where foreign policy thinkers gathered to discuss the future state of the world order. Princeton's John Ikenberry proposed what took up the most intriguing space in Brooks' piece:

The new global architecture would have three features.

First, there would be a global social services sector, providing health care, education, shelters, emergency services and other parts of any healthy community. Second, there would be renewed security alliances, in part to enmesh China before it becomes so powerful that it's uncontainable. Third, the U.N. would be reformed and a Concert of Democracies would be created, where the free world could respond as threats emerge.

As Brooks writes, this vision underestimates the power of nationalism and, I would add, the power of inertia, but much of it is compelling. I don't believe the world is at all ready for a global social services sector, nor do I think it would be a good idea. But a nascent agency to coordinate information sharing, rapid disease response and the like would be a promising beginning.

Re-doing our security alliances makes sense as well. Times have changed a great deal since the Cold War, and many countries are still unsure where their most lasting alliances lie.

Is NATO still relevant? I would like to think so, but perhaps it requires a new mission. Can it bring Russia into its fold? I doubt it can anytime soon, as the country has regressed into past jingoism and confrontationalism to complement its dangerous slide away from democracy.

Will China and Japan be able to reconcile? Will the United States reassert its leading role as honest broker in the Middle East in the post-Bush era, or are we too far gone? If so, who will step into that vacuum? Such fluidity demands a fresh look at the underpinnings of the alliance system.

The third concept, a reform of the United Nations into a Concert of Democracies, is the most fascinating to me. The U.N. has a role to play in the world, but by and large is not doing so. Its bureaucracy, in the experienced words on the Bull Moose, is arrogant and inefficient. Its committee makeup - most notably the Human Rights Commission - is a notorious joke. It is plagued by scandal, and its General Assembly sessions too often, not just in the Bush era, amount to opportunities for small countries to bash the United States. I am optimistic based on new Secretary General Ban Ki Moon's early-term actions, but there is so much to fix.

Bringing together democracies has many potential pitfalls, but also much greater opportunity to act efficiently and with concerted aims. Likely it would not be a reformed U.N. but a separate organization that, if it works, would effectively assume some of its power. Indeed, some competition may be good for both organizations regardless of other benefits we may expect.

Do I see these things happening? Only in part. Alliances are already shifting to some degree, but it's unclear if America has a coherent grand strategy into which to fit them. If a Concert of Democracies emerges, it may happen informally and almost by happenstance, or perhaps even grow fortuitously out of an existing organization like the G-8 or European Union.

The world is changing drastically, and it's not just American politics that is undergoing a realignment. The Bush administration's response to shifting international conditions has largely been to exercise as much hard power as possible, a track that is still useful but increasingly outdated. Its retreat from international institutions will be reversed by the next president, and we should all be relieved for that. But who we elect will have a significant impact on which direction we go with the topics at hand. As damaged as its reputation may be, the United States is still clearly the world's leading nation.

I'd Almost Rather Watch Paris Hilton

2007-06-27T21:00:00.000-05:00

Almost.

Chris Matthews unfortunately hosted columnist Ann Coulter on Hardball for a full hour last night. The story of the show was the call taken during the show from Elizabeth Edwards, John Edwards' wife. As you may remember, Coulter spoke to the CPAC at a South Carolina straw poll in early March of this year, one of the lines of her speech being as follows:

"I'd say something about John Edwards, but if you use the word 'faggot', you have to go to rehab."

Coulter yesterday was true to her formula: 1) Throw out baseless inflammatory rhetoric; 2) Complain that anyone who responds just needs to lighten up; 3) Run away from any fallout by questioning her accusers' motivations.

Let's break down the conversation, shall we? My comments are italicized, except for the [Applause from the crowd] line.

Chris Matthews: You know who's on the line? Somebody to respond to what you said Edwards yesterday morning -- Elizabeth Edwards. She wanted to call in today we said she could. Elizabeth Edwards go on the line you're on the line with Ann Coulter

Elizabeth Edwards: Hello, Chris.

Matthews: You wanna say something directly to the person who's with me?

Edwards: I'm calling you … in the South when someone does something that displeases us, we wanna ask them politely to stop doing it. Uh - I'd like to ask Ann Coulter -- if she wants to debate on issues, on positions -- we certainly disagree with nearly everything she said on your show today -- but uh it's quite another matter for these personal attacks that the things she has said over the years not just about John but about other candidates. It lowers our political dialogue precisely at the time that we need to raise it. So I want to use the opportunity … to ask her politely stop the personal attacks.

Ann Coulter: OK, so I made a joke -- let's see six months ago -- and as you point out they've been raising money off of it for six months since then.
[Ed: Miss Coulter, you've claimed this was a joke ever since that night. This isn't a matter of political correctness, because I believe that banning words and thoughts does a lot more harm than good. But why don't you try to explain what could possibly be funny about that line? To be a joke in this context, there has to be some tie to reality, and there is none to be found here. You're insulting everyone by claiming an attempt at humor.
Also, it's not exactly unusual for candidates to raise money by mentioning the people their supporters can't stand. You've intentionally qualified yourself for that role many times over.]

Matthews: This is yesterday morning, what you said about him.

Coulter: I didn't say anything about him actually either time.
[So this was another John Edwards you were talking about in the quote above? Who are you expecting to buy this?]

Edwards: Ann, you know that's not true. And once more its been going on for sometime.

Coulter: I don't mind you trying to raise money. I mean it's better this than giving $50,000 speeches to the poor.
[Again, change the subject with something completely irrelevant. This is all so much cowardice.]

Edwards: I'm asking you.

Coulter: Just to use my name on the Web pages…

Edwards: I'm asking you politely…

Coulter: … but as for a debate with me, um yeah, sure. Yeah, we'll have a debate

Edwards: I'm asking you politely to stop personal attacks.

Coulter: How bout you stop raising money on the Web page then?
[Again, please tell me how these are connected in any way.]

Edwards: It didn't start it did not...

Coulter: No you don't have cause I don't mind

Edwards: It did not start with that you had a column a number of years ago

Coulter: OK, great the wife of a presidential candidate is calling in asking me to stop speaking...

Matthews: Let her finish the point...

Coulter: You're asking me to stop speaking, stop writing columns, stop writing your books.
[Either you are incapable of simple logical distinctions, or again are simply lying. I would bet on the former not because you are stupid, but because you are so thoroughly brainwashed by your ideology that you automatically give anything a Democrat says the worst possible spin. Mrs. Edwards is clearly saying nothing of the sort.]

Matthews: OK, Ann. Please.
[Another common tactic: just shout over the other person. It's much easier debating a straw man.]

Coulter: OK

Edwards: You wrote a column a couple years ago which made fun of the moment of Charlie Dean's death, and suggested that my husband had a bumper sticker on the back of his car that said ask me about my dead son. This is not legitimate political dialogue.

Coulter: That's now three years ago --
[What possible difference does the time interval make? Was it wrong or not?]

Edwards: It debases political dialogue. It drives people away from the process. We can't have a debate about issues if you're using this kind of language.

Coulter: Yeah why isn't John Edwards making this call?
[Again, why does that matter? If he had called in, you likely would have been talking about how pathetic it was for a presidential candidate to stoop to the level of calling a columnist and worrying so much about it. Further, you imply something negative about John Edwards without actually saying what it is.]

Matthews: Well do you want to respond and we'll end this conversation?

Edwards: I haven't talked to John about this call.

Coulter: This is just another attempt for –

Edwards: I'm making this call as a mother. I'm the mother of that boy who died. My children participate -- these young people behind you are the age of my children. You're asking them to participate in a dialogue that's based on hatefulness and ugliness instead of on the issues and I don't think that's serving them or this country very well.

[Applause from the crowd]

Matthews: Thank you very much Elizabeth Edwards. (Turning to Coulter) Do you want to -- you have all the time in the world to respond.

Coulter: I think we heard all we need to hear. The wife of a presidential candidate is asking me to stop speaking. No.
[Could someone please hold an intervention with you? You are implying that you are unable to speak without baseless insult and appealing to the worst in your audiences. We did hear all we needed to, but the vast majority of us got something much different than you did.]

Coulter is the worst example of a columnist my mind can realistically conjure. She appears little but a ball of insecurity and attention-grabbing controversy, and exhibits a general contempt for those who disagree with her. That she is sharing her honest opinions I will not question. But they are in some ways the equivalent of the worst shock radio, a play for cheap applause and without much basis in reality. If she could defend them, she would be able to debate rather than throw insults childishly back at her accusers.

"Putting the B Back in British"

2007-06-27T18:28:00.000-05:00

For those who point to Western Europe as a model of progressiveness on immigration, know that they are dealing with many of the same issues as America: Did we let diversity go too far and end up with a society that lives in separate ethnic groups at the expense of national cohesion? How much assimilation should we be doing?

Separated Muslim minorities are much more of an issue in Western Europe than America, and more explicit government support for national identity and ideals has achieved good popular support in many countries. In signaling how his administration will change priorities from his predecessor, Britain's Labour Prime-Minister-to-be Gordon Brown gave vocal support to greater social integration (reported in the Christian Science Monitor):

As he took over Sunday as Labour Party leader, Brown – more traditional and mindful of Britain's heritage than his predecessor – hinted at a new "contract" between the British state and its people. "In return for opportunity for all ... we expect and demand responsibility from all: to learn English, and contribute to and respect the culture we build together." British values, he said, involved "liberty, civic duty, and fairness to all."

He's already hinted that he wants to institute a new public holiday – a "British day" – and that immigrants seeking citizenship should demonstrate their loyalty through voluntary community work.

"We do need a sense of identity in a changing world, and there is nothing wrong with saying if people come and make this country their home then there should be a sense of Britishness to which they must subscribe," says Bob Marshall-Andrews, a Labour parliamentarian.

Labour's rhetoric on this is similar to what was espoused in this blog in several recent posts: that this is not about abandoning one's culture, but accepting that citizenry carries responsibilities and core values that add up to an essential national identity. To live in a country together we don't need to agree on what films to see, marriage rituals to observe, or even the relative importance of work and leisure time. Those things matter, but we can all make different choices. But if we don't agree on the primacy of a secular rule of law, the rights of the individual, or the limitations on church and state, then it would be irresponsible to avoid their discussion on grounds of political correctness.

You Mean One Actually Works?

2007-06-27T18:20:00.000-05:00

A study by U.S. researchers seems to show that echinacea, an herbal mixture, actually does significantly help fight the common cold. The results are unfortunately in conflict with previous studies, and the differences in results are large on the surface. It will be interesting to see how the discrepancy is explained.

Thompson in Context

2007-06-27T17:30:00.000-05:00

Peter Beinart and Jonah Goldberg this week talk about how Fred Thompson is not the next Ronald Reagan, as well as how each party today is in some ways captive to the memory of its favorite deceased president.

They make excellent points as usual, but I'd like to veer off to address Thompson for a bit. I'm on record as saying I think he won't be all he's advertised when he finally enters the race, reportedly next week.

That Thompson looks the part of a president is obvious, and it's his closest tie to Reagan. But by accounts from people inside his own proto-campaign, his extemporaneous speaking skills leave much to be desired. His energy and commitment have been questioned by many, and one wonders just how much of his popularity is due to simply not being named Giuliani, McCain or Romney.

But what is getting short shrift in coverage are Thompson's own issue conversions. Ever since thinking about getting into the race, he has been using his media space in the National Review, radio commentaries, and talk shows to show off his conservative credentials. He has hit all the hot-button issues on the Right: repeal of McCain-Feingold, abortion, social issues, patriotism, tax cuts and the like.

But this isn't the same Fred Thompson I remember. He was one of my favorite senators while he was in Congress because he was reasonable, moderate and plainspoken about it. He was the same guy who was John McCain's national campaign co-chair in 2000, one of the only senators to publicly support the Arizona Republican. He even voted enthusiastically for McCain-Feingold. Thompson was hardly the darling of conservative voters.

I've said before I expect a certain amount of issue shifting with a presidential candidate. They are no longer representing just their own states, but the entire country, and not every change in rhetoric betrays an unforgivable character flaw. I think we just ask that they keep those changes within a area code we can reasonably accept.

Thompson's conversion to me is just a bit too calculated and much, and I'm not buying it. That so many others are would indicate a great deal of wishful thinking in the hopes of finding another Reagan, and is also a testament to their candidate's charisma. We shall see if it holds up over the long haul.

A Glimpse of Despotism

2007-06-27T17:27:00.000-05:00

The Washington Post's four-day epic, behind-the-scenes look at Dick Cheney's tenure as Vice President is, whether one supports Cheney or not, a portrait of creeping despotism. There we see through glints and anecdotal shards how one of the most powerful men in the world operates from behind a wall kept deliberately opaque, shunning credit and fame for far-reaching results. And we get an idea of how one man can garner such immense power through experience, energy, certainty, and sheer force of will.

So is Cheney's an enlightened despotism that cuts through bureaucracy to efficiently serve the country's needs at a time of war, or simply a dark era of executive power run amok? It is neither, or rather it is not that simple. And it is also the wrong question to ask.

There is an allure to the get-it-done strongman, especially in time of crisis. The hero who bends the rules of a stultified bureaucracy to save what's really important is a staple of pop culture. People around the world rail against red tape and arcane rules that in practice ignore the people they're meant to help. And there's something to it. The exercise of that kind of authority has its advantages, efficiency, clarity, and results among them.

The problem is, concentrating so much power in one person makes a lot of people dependent on his or her character and judgment. Perhaps democracy's greatest virtues are the accountability that even the powerful have to the people, and the diffusion of power. All those checks and balances reduce efficiency, but make it hard for one person or a small group to take over.

And yet to an extent, that is what we've allowed to happen these last six-plus years. To be sure, Dick Cheney has far from absolute control of the federal government. But he has shown what a man with extraordinary personal focus and talents can have if he uses secrecy and tight control of information to its greatest advantage. He and others in this administration have set so many damaging precedents that it will be difficult to pull back from some of them.

It shouldn't have been this way. From Part I of the Post series:

When James A. Baker III was tapped to be White House chief of staff in 1980, he interviewed most of his living predecessors. Advice from Cheney filled four pages of a yellow legal pad. Only once, to signify Cheney's greatest emphasis, did Baker write in all capital letters:

BE AN HONEST BROKER

DON'T USE THE PROCESS TO IMPOSE YOUR POLICY VIEWS ON PRES.

Cheney told Baker, according to the notes, that an "orderly paper flow is way you protect the Pres.," ensuring that any proposal has been tested against other views. Cheney added:

"It's not in anyone's interest to get an 'oh by the way decision' -- & all have to understand that. Can hurt the Pres. Bring it up at a Cab. mtg. Make sure everyone understands this."

Excellent advice, but Cheney unfortunately has run the Vice President' office nearly the opposite way. He has kept vital information to himself and trusted aides only, bypassing even high-level cabinet members who might disagree with his agenda. Documents and records have been destroyed, and administration officials repeatedly blindsided by decisions. The list goes on in shocking detail.

The corruption of power is a cliche, and it is an easy morass into which to fall. Cheney has made the mistake of so many powerful men throughout history, which is that he is so certain that he is right and indispensible, that his agenda's achievement is so critical, that he need not follow the rules. All that matters is pushing through the right things.

Take the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Cheney saw its enforcement at Klamath Falls, OR as being in conflict with economic needs of farmers, but the law and science were clear against him. But for Cheney, to paraphrase Clausewitz, science is just politics by other means. So he got the floodgates opened by making sure that other scientists came out with a report stating the effects of allowing irrigation in the Falls area were unclear. Unfortunately, the aftereffects were not:

Because of Cheney's intervention, the government reversed itself and let the water flow in time to save the 2002 growing season, declaring that there was no threat to the fish. What followed was the largest fish kill the West had ever seen, with tens of thousands of salmon rotting on the banks of the Klamath River.

On issue after issue, Cheney has put ideology over established procedure and law, delivering tortured justifications for doing what he wants to do instead of what the executive branch has been mandated to do.

It is not that he is cravenly serving his own ends; it seems clear he sincerely believes he is America's first (or perhaps second) servant. It is that he has forgotten his own lessons, that no one is infallible, that successful politics is not just machination and willpower. Ideas and conduct must be stood up to scrutiny both to obtain buy-in and to make them better, and he has systematically done just the opposite, pushing through his agenda with as little transparency as possible.

The same applies to President Bush, who suffers from the same certainty that he is right, and the additional crippling handicap that he is uninterested in complexity or facts that may cloud what he already feels to be true.

What about accountability to public opinion? Though far from a perfect roadmap to truth on complex issues, there is often wisdom to be found in a poll. But Bush and Cheney seem to have treated opinion not so much with skepticism as disdain:

"The only person in Washington who cares less about his public image than David Addington [Cheney's counsel] is Dick Cheney," said a former White House ally. "What both of them miss is that ..... in times of war, a prerequisite for success is people having confidence in their leadership. This is the great failure of the administration -- a complete and total indifference to public opinion."

Convinced of the rightness of their mission, this administration has assiduously avoided and even actively shut themselves off from opposing viewpoints and contrary evidence. Where someone was not sufficiently ideological or loyal (read: unquestioning), they were forced out in one way or another. If not a full-fledged mental illness, this faith-based blindness is at the least an extreme personality trait that has done massive damage across vast swaths of policy decisions. And far be it from Congress or the courts to stop them:

According to participants in the debate [about torturing enemy combatants], the vice president stands by the view that Bush need not honor any of the new judicial and legislative restrictions. His lawyer, they said, has recently restated Cheney's argument that when courts and Congress "purport to" limit the commander in chief's warmaking authority, he has the constitutional prerogative to disregard them.

Statements like these might be the comical ravings of a power-drunk lunatic about to crash if this were a film. And perhaps the sheer ludicrousness of pronouncements made by this administration, coupled with its secrecy and public relations that stands in opposition to its actions, have made it hard for us to come to grips with just how awful and dangerous they have been. Speaking for myself, the old adage that a big lie is easier to sell than a little one held true. As guarded as I am against extremism and conspiracy theories, I simply could not believe they could be this bad.

What America has gotten from Bush and Cheney is writ small what countries always get from concentrated power: a magnification of the leaders' strengths and weaknesses. Such works when a leader is right, but can be disastrous when he or she is wrong. Their overweening intransigence only amplifies the problem.

It is fair to ask the specific results of Dick Cheney's leadership, but the more important question is whether it is a good idea to invest anyone with the kind of authority he has accumulated for himself and the administration. There is a reasonable debate to be had that executive power should increase as a result of the September 11th attacks, or that some freedom should be sacrificed to increase security. But we have not had that debate, just stilted rhetoric that frames the issues only in extremes. The power in question has been claimed and consolidated without regard to whether the public wants it, or whether other branches of government have explicitly acted against it.

As citizens, we could not have known all that was going on behind the scenes. But we can't claim ourselves not culpable for its actions either. Doing so avoids our own responsibility as voters and informed citizens. We already have an impressive group of candidates running for president in 2008, and they will follow our lead. We need to demand more of them than we have of the current administration, including ensuring that the proper role of executive power and its oversight receives its proper, public debate.

Built-in Racial Preference?

2007-06-27T14:21:00.000-05:00

This is likely not surprising to evolutionary biologists/psychologists, but studies would seem to indicate that a preference for one "race" (used loosely, because many scientists disparage the use of that term as being technically inaccurate) is either in-born or learned very early in life depending on the predominant race one grows up around.

An article on the study can be found here.

The reason this shouldn't be surprising is that humans have a great many evolved traits that served us well when we were scrambling to stay alive a few million years ago in the African savannah, but are counterproductive for the industrialized, high-tech, urban lives many of us lead today.

When we lived in Stone Age tribes of 100, an innate fear of anyone who didn't look like the people we grew up with might easily save our lives when another tribe ambushed ours to take over the local water supply. Our instinct to defensiveness, the numerous ways that emotion overcomes reason, and so many of our fears helped us survive in the past, but complicate and contradict each other now. It's likely that at least some part of racism is similarly rooted.

But as with other remnants of our past which no longer fit, that doesn't mean we just accept them. We no longer allow for unchecked emotion to be a legitimate excuse for committing crimes against others, we expect people to restrain themselves. Regardless of our predispositions, racism belongs in the same category. The main impact of these findings is simply to make the problem easier to understand.

Back to it...

2007-06-27T13:50:00.000-05:00

The house has been sold, its contents (mostly) moved, and a little corner of an upstairs room formed into a makeshift computing command center. And so, let's get back to some posting, shall we?

Right after I go downstairs and get myself some corn chips.

Slowed Reactions

2007-06-14T21:03:00.000-05:00

If you're one of my ten readers, you've noticed a dearth of postings the last few days. This is because I'm moving in about a week, and have way too much stuff to pack, sell, give away, or toss between now and then. I'll post when I can, but it will likely be a little slow until then.

Thanks.

Sopranos Finite

2007-06-11T21:33:00.000-05:00

One apparently can't have a blog without some sort of comment on the Sopranos today. And since I've seen them all, I won't shy away from one of my own.

I loved it. Not so much right afterward; the person I watched it with and I laughed out loud at the cut-to-black ending. We knew creator David Chase was not going to go out like anyone expected, we just didn't know how. At first it played like a Bobby Ewing wake-up in terms of jerking around an audience.

But it was one of two things: Chase saying we could end things however we want to (unless a movie is coming down the pike) or, more likely I think, that Tony was killed. I'm not the first to reference Tony's conversation with Bobby where they talk about not seeing death coming, that all of sudden everything would just go black. But I don't want to get too into that.

Don't count Nikki Finke of the L.A. Weekly as a fan. She writes:

The line to cancel HBO starts here. What a ridiculously disappointing end lacking in creativity and filled with cowardice to The Sopranos saga....Chase clearly didn't give a damn about his fans. Instead, he crapped in their faces. This is why America hates Hollywood.

My goodness, get a grip here. Because you didn't get total closure? This show has never provided that. I'm sorry it didn't follow a formula, but the best stuff often doesn't. Even better:

...The Sopranos was not a show that went on inside your head. It was a richly visual series whose most memorable moments were graphic and in your face and damn proud of it.

What have you been watching? More than almost any show that's ever been made The Sopranos goes on in your head. It's continually ambiguous, filled with personality details that have no direct meaning on the plot, but are there for you to do with what you will. Endings of seasons are left vague and unsatisfying. My question is, why did you psyche yourself up to expect anything different at the end?

There are legitimate reasons to not like yesterday's ending, but if nothing else, Chase was consistent with what came before. It worked for me.